TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Patrik Muller vs Pavel Moulis 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012111117611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Pavel Moulis @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 60.5%
69 points played in total.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:2860.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Muller 1167 vs Moulis 1319
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Moulis 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 30% vs Moulis 50%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller +1 · Moulis +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 2.20 / Moulis 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Moulis)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245310
Muller2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 20 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Moulis1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 33 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 173 vs 193 / 43943.9%44%76 / 173 vs 193 / 439Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMuller 2.20/Moulis 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Pavel Moulis @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
1–3
Moulis won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
P. Muller10
LOct 5 · 12:33P. Muller2.256790M. Holub1.571111113WOct 5 · 10:30M. Holub1.44111291152P. Muller2.63414115113LOct 5 · 10:00J. Jnr1.4061111113P. Muller2.75114871LSep 29 · 08:44J. Krejcik1.531111113P. Muller2.386990LSep 29 · 07:30A. Akopyan1.7381111123P. Muller2.001179101WSep 29 · 07:00P. Muller3.2512119113J. Krejcik1.331081181LSep 29 · 06:00P. Muller1.91105121192J. Vrnak1.801211104113LSep 24 · 12:43V. Kilian2.001111113P. Muller1.739640LSep 24 · 11:30T. Holomek1.801311113P. Muller1.9111790LSep 24 · 11:00P. Muller1.618540A. Akopyan2.201111113
P. Moulis10
LOct 5 · 13:05P. Moulis1.5391116482J. Jnr2.381161411113WOct 5 · 11:00J. Jnr2.25159461P. Moulis1.57131111113LOct 5 · 09:30M. Holub2.3851111113P. Moulis1.53115951LOct 4 · 17:04V. Kucala2.381110117113P. Moulis1.5391231152WOct 4 · 15:30P. Moulis1.53951111113M. Holub2.3811117732LOct 4 · 14:30P. Moulis2.25411118102M. Cmil1.57118611123WOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842LOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113WOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis1.6711611123J. Jnr2.104114101WOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113
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