TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Moulis vs Marcel Cmil 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111181168111012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMarcel Cmil to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Marcel Cmil below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-9
Point 89 set 5, 10-9 · our read held Marcel Cmil at 61.7%
89 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Pavel Moulis 8–8 Marcel Cmil Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2961.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cmil
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1333 vs Cmil 1391
Cmil
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 60% vs Cmil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 70% vs Cmil 50%
Moulis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis +1 · Cmil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Cmil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 2.25 / Cmil 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cmil)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240362
Moulis2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 26 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back17% 6 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Cmil1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 82 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis3wins
AwayCmil7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCmil leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis75%3 of 4
AwayCmil100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis4Cmil6n = 10Cmil took 6 of 10
S2Moulis3Cmil7n = 10Cmil took 7 of 10
S3Moulis5Cmil4n = 9Moulis took 5 of 9
S4Moulis2Cmil2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisCmilM − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.2+0.8per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisCmilBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 437 vs 354 / 65343.7%54.2%191 / 437 vs 354 / 653Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CmilMoulis 2.25/Cmil 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Cmil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cmil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 19 · 10:30P. Moulis4791111882M. Cmil44116511113
LJul 25 · 13:30P. Moulis217680M. Cmil331111113
WJul 20 · 09:18P. Moulis4011711113M. Cmil26911421
LJul 20 · 06:00P. Moulis2711790M. Cmil351311113
LApr 24 · 12:58P. Moulis33116791M. Cmil4071111113
LApr 24 · 12:00P. Moulis269890M. Cmil331111113
LApr 13 · 08:40P. Moulis46510111192M. Cmil47111267113
WApr 13 · 06:30P. Moulis331111113M. Cmil207940
WApr 6 · 07:00P. Moulis331111113M. Cmil219480
P. Moulis10
WOct 4 · 15:30P. Moulis1.53951111113M. Holub2.3811117732WOct 4 · 13:30P. Moulis1.53515911113V. Kucala2.38111311842LOct 3 · 20:58P. Moulis1.80124111182D. Sabuka1.91141185113WOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis1.6711611123J. Jnr2.104114101WOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113LOct 3 · 18:00D. Sabuka2.381115143P. Moulis1.53513120WOct 1 · 09:13P. Moulis1.91111110113L. Krutina1.80941261LOct 1 · 08:00P. Moulis2.50791111102M. Obraz1.50111188123WOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113WOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123
M. Cmil10
WOct 4 · 14:00M. Holub1.83111181032M. Cmil1.83551112113LOct 3 · 17:12M. Cmil2.7586111142M. Melisek1.40111179113WOct 3 · 16:00J. Hanacek1.5091171152M. Cmil2.50116119113LOct 3 · 15:00M. Vorel1.611111113M. Cmil2.206880WOct 3 · 13:30M. Melisek1.36111115682M. Cmil3.007131311113WSep 28 · 20:38M. Cmil1.83111110113T. Stejskal1.83771241LSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143LSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 18:00T. Stejskal1.8081111982M. Cmil1.91119511113LSep 28 · 09:10D. Sabuka1.7371115113M. Cmil2.001181381
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