TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Krutina vs Pavel Moulis 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71161112101012––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:56 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krutina above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Lukas Krutina at 60.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krutina 4–5 Pavel Moulis Lukas Krutina has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5660.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krutina
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutina 1360 vs Moulis 1319
Krutina
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutina 60% vs Moulis 40%
Krutina
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutina 40% vs Moulis 60%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutina -2 · Moulis +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Krutina) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutina 1.615 / Moulis 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Krutina)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223607
Krutina1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Moulis2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKrutina4wins
AwayMoulis5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMoulis leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutina100%4 of 4
AwayMoulis100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutina4Moulis5n = 9Moulis took 5 of 9
S2Krutina4Moulis5n = 9Moulis took 5 of 9
S3Krutina6Moulis3n = 9Krutina took 6 of 9
S4Krutina2Moulis4n = 6Moulis took 4 of 6
S5Krutina2Moulis2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKrutinaMoulisK − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match37.340.2−2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutinaMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 242 vs 192 / 43951.7%43.7%125 / 242 vs 192 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaKrutina 1.61/Moulis 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina357612101P. Moulis44111110123
LSep 23 · 09:09L. Krutina27841231P. Moulis43111110113
WSep 23 · 05:30L. Krutina45121138113P. Moulis50109111192
WSep 22 · 09:30L. Krutina381211153P. Moulis31108130
WSep 17 · 12:00L. Krutina331111113P. Moulis217680
WApr 15 · 14:45L. Krutina49115119133P. Moulis45811411112
LFeb 4 · 16:30L. Krutina3926111192P. Moulis47111168113
LJun 11 · 16:10L. Krutina4681181182P. Moulis46119114113
LJun 11 · 15:15L. Krutina2458110P. Moulis351111133
L. Krutina10
LSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251LSep 28 · 19:30L. Krutina2.104811111T. Stejskal1.6711117133WSep 28 · 18:30L. Krutina1.83121166113M. Cmil1.83103111172WSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152WSep 25 · 08:33L. Krutina1.67713911113M. Holub2.10111111682LSep 25 · 08:00L. Krutina2.756117101D. Sabuka1.4011411123LSep 25 · 06:30M. Holub2.1011611113L. Krutina1.67711781LSep 25 · 06:00F. Fryml2.251111113L. Krutina1.576650LSep 23 · 09:09P. Moulis2.63111110113L. Krutina1.44841231WSep 23 · 07:30L. Krutina1.7371111113F. Fryml2.00115781
P. Moulis10
WOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861LSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 23 · 09:09P. Moulis2.63111110113L. Krutina1.44841231WSep 23 · 08:00M. Holub2.20881111102P. Moulis1.61111188123WSep 23 · 07:00F. Fryml2.00511611152P. Moulis1.73116119173LSep 23 · 05:30L. Krutina1.44121138113P. Moulis2.63109111192WSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis2.101111113J. Jnr1.675820
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