TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Moulis vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1146111141210––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 69 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Pavel Moulis at 56.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 7–7 Jakub Dufek Jnr Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5556.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moulis
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moulis 1323 vs Jnr 1263
Moulis
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moulis 60% vs Jnr 40%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moulis 50% vs Jnr 30%
Moulis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moulis +1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Moulis) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 1.666 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Moulis)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234356
Moulis1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 32 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Jnr2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 82 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoulis5wins
AwayJnr5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis83.3%5 of 6
AwayJnr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis6Jnr4n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S2Moulis5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Moulis7Jnr3n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S4Moulis1Jnr3n = 4Jnr took 3 of 4
S5Moulis1Jnr2n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoulisJnrM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.033.5+1.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 435 vs 245 / 48743.7%50.3%190 / 435 vs 245 / 487Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisMoulis 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr155820
WSep 22 · 12:00P. Moulis491161011113J. Jnr4161112662
LSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis5311111110102J. Jnr53813812123
LSep 17 · 11:00P. Moulis174490J. Jnr331111113
LSep 15 · 09:30P. Moulis3931111952J. Jnr49119711113
WSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis351112123J. Jnr29910100
LSep 13 · 19:00P. Moulis2614660J. Jnr381611113
WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr186480
WSep 9 · 12:00P. Moulis331111113J. Jnr184860
LSep 2 · 11:00P. Moulis32971151J. Jnr4111118113
P. Moulis10
WOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113LOct 3 · 18:00D. Sabuka2.381115143P. Moulis1.53513120WOct 1 · 09:13P. Moulis1.91111110113L. Krutina1.80941261LOct 1 · 08:00P. Moulis2.50791111102M. Obraz1.50111188123WOct 1 · 06:30P. Cizek1.618970P. Moulis2.201111113WOct 1 · 06:00L. Krutina1.617612101P. Moulis2.20111110123WSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 08:00J. Puk1.6111811113P. Moulis2.20911861LSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161
J. Jnr10
WOct 3 · 20:28J. Jnr1.731114113M. Holub2.0051280LOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113LOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113WOct 2 · 12:00M. Melisek1.50111161122J. Jnr2.50138117113LOct 2 · 11:00M. Hasman1.7311114123J. Jnr2.009611101LOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191LOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481
Upcoming Matches
P. Moulis
J. Jnr
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