TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Holub vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311711911811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:21 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Martin Holub @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingMartin Holub above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Martin Holub at 56.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Holub 36–29 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:2156.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-29 in 65
Holub
Wrong
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1359 vs Jnr 1255
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Jnr 20%
Holub
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 40% vs Jnr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Jnr -1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.727 / Jnr 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Holub)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234600
Holub1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 94 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it70% 64 of 91
Jnr2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 82 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayJnr6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub42.9%3 of 7
AwayJnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub7Jnr3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Holub5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Holub4Jnr6n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Holub5Jnr4n = 9Holub took 5 of 9
S5Holub0Jnr3n = 3Jnr took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubJnrH − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.2+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 651 vs 244 / 48554.8%50.3%357 / 651 vs 244 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.73/Jnr 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Holub · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Holub @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 12:59M. Holub4211781152J. Jnr44911112113
WSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub3961111113J. Jnr32119841
WSep 14 · 12:00M. Holub49111215113J. Jnr366101731
WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub351113113J. Jnr2791170
LSep 2 · 10:00M. Holub36911791J. Jnr4211911113
WAug 28 · 11:30M. Holub43111011113J. Jnr32712761
LAug 25 · 17:03M. Holub34911591J. Jnr4211911113
LAug 25 · 13:30M. Holub4212841172J. Jnr481011115113
LJul 18 · 10:00M. Holub371179101J. Jnr4391111123
LJul 17 · 09:30M. Holub4011411772J. Jnr46511811113
M. Holub10
WSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251WSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143WSep 28 · 19:00T. Stejskal1.5751141172M. Holub2.25115117113LSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152LSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152WSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990LSep 27 · 10:00P. Fiser1.507121111113M. Holub2.5011149472LSep 25 · 08:33L. Krutina1.67713911113M. Holub2.10111111682LSep 25 · 07:30M. Holub1.73111181352F. Fryml2.00461115113
J. Jnr10
LOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113WOct 2 · 12:00M. Melisek1.50111161122J. Jnr2.50138117113LOct 2 · 11:00M. Hasman1.7311114123J. Jnr2.009611101LOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191LOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481WOct 1 · 09:30J. Puk1.7314116372J. Jnr2.001261111113WSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152LSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841
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