TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Dufek Jnr vs Martin Holub 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151412118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 61 set 3, 11-8
61 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 30–36 Martin Holub Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 30 of their 66 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Jnr beat Holub 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.727 / Holub 2.00
Setka Cup · #13240561
Jnr1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 87 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 61 of 83
Holub2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 55 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayHolub4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwayHolub42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr7Holub3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Jnr4Holub5n = 9Holub took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrHolubJ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.4−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 488 vs 350 / 64250.2%54.5%245 / 488 vs 350 / 642Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.73/Holub 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 17:30J. Jnr44111111113M. Holub37137981
WSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr44911112113M. Holub4211781152
LSep 27 · 12:00J. Jnr32119841M. Holub3961111113
LSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr366101731M. Holub49111215113
LSep 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2791170M. Holub351113113
WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub36911791
LAug 28 · 11:30J. Jnr32712761M. Holub43111011113
WAug 25 · 17:03J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub34911591
WAug 25 · 13:30J. Jnr481011115113M. Holub4212841172
WJul 18 · 10:00J. Jnr4391111123M. Holub371179101
J. Jnr10
LOct 3 · 20:00P. Moulis1.6711611123J. Jnr2.104114101LOct 3 · 19:00D. Sabuka1.50111145113J. Jnr2.5029111172WOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113LOct 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2.109760M. Melisek1.671111113WOct 2 · 12:00M. Melisek1.50111161122J. Jnr2.50138117113LOct 2 · 11:00M. Hasman1.7311114123J. Jnr2.009611101LOct 2 · 09:30D. Sabuka1.5711114113J. Jnr2.25271191LOct 1 · 12:28J. Jnr1.911110117132J. Puk1.80612811153LOct 1 · 12:00A. Dvoracek1.401111123J. Jnr2.7533100LOct 1 · 11:00M. Melisek1.5381111113J. Jnr2.38116481
M. Holub10
WOct 3 · 19:30M. Holub1.83711114113D. Sabuka1.8311981172LOct 3 · 18:30M. Holub2.20713771P. Moulis1.61111111113LOct 3 · 17:30M. Holub1.73137981J. Jnr2.00111111113WSep 28 · 21:08M. Holub2.00111110113L. Krutina1.73761251WSep 28 · 20:00M. Cmil1.91127116122M. Holub1.801011611143WSep 28 · 19:00T. Stejskal1.5751141172M. Holub2.25115117113LSep 28 · 17:30L. Krutina1.73111287173M. Holub2.008101111152LSep 27 · 12:59J. Jnr2.10911112113M. Holub1.6711781152WSep 27 · 12:00M. Holub1.7361111113J. Jnr2.00119841LSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990
Upcoming Matches
J. Jnr
Nothing scheduled
M. Holub
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