TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vaclav Coubal vs Martin Holub 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197119111171211
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched: 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Coubal above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-11
Point 99 set 5, 12-11 · our read held Martin Holub at 66.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Coubal 29–36 Martin Holub Vaclav Coubal has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4866.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-36 in 65
Holub
Wrong
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Coubal 1267 vs Holub 1287
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Coubal 60% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Coubal 50% vs Holub 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Coubal +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Holub) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCoubal 2.75 / Holub 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Holub)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270806
Coubal2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Holub1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 93 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it69% 64 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCoubal2wins
AwayHolub8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCoubal40%2 of 5
AwayHolub100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Coubal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Coubal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Coubal3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Coubal2Holub5n = 7Holub took 5 of 7
S5Coubal0Holub3n = 3Holub took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCoubalHolubC − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.040.2−6.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCoubalHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 360 vs 351 / 65147.5%53.9%171 / 360 vs 351 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolubCoubal 2.75/Holub 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:08V. Coubal155460M. Holub331111113
LSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal4312711492M. Holub511011811113
LAug 25 · 15:30V. Coubal30611851M. Holub4111811113
LAug 24 · 18:30V. Coubal26114651M. Holub3961111113
LAug 16 · 18:00V. Coubal2512670M. Holub361411113
WAug 9 · 15:00V. Coubal4011116123M. Holub369611101
LJul 26 · 18:30V. Coubal48111191162M. Holub46741113113
WJul 14 · 16:59V. Coubal341111123M. Holub2697100
LJul 14 · 16:00V. Coubal343111281M. Holub45111310113
LJul 7 · 14:30V. Coubal4571381162M. Holub491111115113
V. Coubal10
LOct 10 · 15:00V. Coubal1.4061160P. Muller2.75111393WOct 5 · 20:33V. Coubal1.7371113113M. Vydra2.001191181LOct 5 · 20:00V. Coubal2.25911591M. Cmil1.5711811113WOct 5 · 18:30M. Vydra1.73871151V. Coubal2.0011115113LOct 5 · 18:00J. Mares2.388111211113V. Coubal1.5311614572WSep 16 · 17:05A. Akopyan2.757960V. Coubal1.401111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Coubal1.4451111153A. Akopyan2.631197131LSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390LSep 16 · 14:00P. Fiser1.571110117113V. Coubal2.2571261182WSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113
M. Holub10
WOct 10 · 14:30V. Kucala1.91751171M. Holub1.8011115113LOct 7 · 17:13A. Akopyan1.91167613113M. Holub1.801411111182WOct 7 · 15:30F. Fryml1.83119100M. Holub1.831311123LOct 7 · 15:00M. Holub1.57101170A. Akopyan2.251213113WOct 7 · 14:00M. Holub1.801111113M. Cmil1.915770WOct 5 · 12:33P. Muller2.256790M. Holub1.571111113LOct 5 · 11:30M. Holub2.0061111692J. Jnr1.73119811113LOct 5 · 10:30M. Holub1.44111291152P. Muller2.63414115113WOct 5 · 09:30M. Holub2.3851111113P. Moulis1.53115951LOct 4 · 16:36M. Cmil1.651181111123M. Holub2.10511139102
Upcoming Matches
V. Coubal
Nothing scheduled
M. Holub
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