TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Milan Vydra vs Vaclav Coubal 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711115511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vydra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Vydra above · Vaclav Coubal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Milan Vydra at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vydra 6–7 Vaclav Coubal Milan Vydra has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vydra
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vydra 1258 vs Coubal 1263
Coubal
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vydra 20% vs Coubal 40%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vydra 20% vs Coubal 40%
Coubal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vydra -4 · Coubal -1
Vydra
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vydra) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vydra form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVydra 1.727 / Coubal 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vydra)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245676
Vydra1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite44% won 25 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Coubal2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 33 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVydra5wins
AwayCoubal5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVydra80%4 of 5
AwayCoubal80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vydra5Coubal5n = 10split evenly
S2Vydra4Coubal6n = 10Coubal took 6 of 10
S3Vydra7Coubal3n = 10Vydra took 7 of 10
S4Vydra1Coubal4n = 5Coubal took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVydraCoubalV − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.431.7+1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVydraCoubalBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 204 vs 170 / 35849%47.5%100 / 204 vs 170 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VydraVydra 1.73/Coubal 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vydra · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Coubal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 18:30M. Vydra31871151V. Coubal3811115113
LSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra248790V. Coubal331111113
WSep 8 · 19:30M. Vydra331111113V. Coubal185670
WAug 24 · 19:30M. Vydra341211113V. Coubal2210930
WJul 27 · 16:59M. Vydra41113115113V. Coubal4281151172
LJul 27 · 14:30M. Vydra3811710101V. Coubal4051112123
WJul 6 · 12:13M. Vydra331111113V. Coubal206680
LJul 6 · 09:45M. Vydra34861281V. Coubal43111110113
WMay 24 · 16:00M. Vydra44111111113V. Coubal28133931
LJul 14 · 14:00M. Vydra227870V. Coubal331111113
M. Vydra10
LOct 5 · 19:30M. Vydra1.50411351J. Mares2.5011911113LOct 5 · 17:30M. Vydra2.20811841M. Cmil1.6111911113LSep 28 · 08:38L. Boura1.5791311113M. Vydra2.251111471LSep 28 · 07:30M. Cmil1.911111113M. Vydra1.809370LSep 28 · 07:00M. Vydra1.676570L. Boura2.101111113WSep 28 · 06:00M. Vydra2.25811116113D. Sabuka1.5711471182LSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113WSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 19:00M. Vydra1.61121191252M. Cmil2.201091114113LSep 8 · 18:00M. Vydra2.63611691J. Jnr1.4411911113
V. Coubal10
LOct 5 · 18:00J. Mares2.388111211113V. Coubal1.5311614572WSep 16 · 17:05A. Akopyan2.757960V. Coubal1.401111113WSep 16 · 16:00V. Coubal1.4451111153A. Akopyan2.631197131LSep 16 · 14:30A. Skyba1.831111113V. Coubal1.836390LSep 16 · 14:00P. Fiser1.571110117113V. Coubal2.2571261182WSep 8 · 20:31M. Vydra1.578790V. Coubal2.251111113LSep 8 · 19:30V. Coubal2.255670M. Vydra1.571111113LSep 8 · 18:30V. Coubal2.758314121J. Jnr1.40111112143WSep 8 · 17:30V. Coubal2.251111210113M. Cmil1.5764111232LSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460
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