TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Stolfa vs Jiri Zuzanek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Zuzanek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Jiri Zuzanek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Jiri Zuzanek at 54.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 0–1 Jiri Zuzanek Jakub Stolfa has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 11:10Sent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 2.25 · Won
54.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 9.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zuzanek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1662 vs Zuzanek 1547
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 60% vs Zuzanek 20%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 70% vs Zuzanek 30%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa -1 · Zuzanek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Zuzanek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zuzanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.25 / Zuzanek 1.571
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Stolfa)+1.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13268544
Stolfa2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 74 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back34% 28 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Zuzanek1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite49% won 95 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it87% 46 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it70% 71 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStolfa0wins
AwayZuzanek1wins
Zuzanek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStolfaZuzanekS − ZBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match27.042.0−15.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaZuzanekBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 437 vs 544 / 109753.1%49.6%232 / 437 vs 544 / 1097Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaStolfa 2.25/Zuzanek 1.57
Hit
What we said
54.5%
Zuzanek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 11 · 08:00J. Stolfa27117631J. Zuzanek4291111113
J. Stolfa10
LOct 10 · 11:30M. Nohejl1.301111113J. Stolfa3.409960LOct 10 · 10:00J. Stolfa2.104980V. Dvorak1.671111113WOct 9 · 13:30M. Sobisek2.0021311862J. Stolfa1.731111711113WOct 9 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.0011119113J. Svoboda1.73631171LOct 9 · 11:30M. Sobisek2.251110116113J. Stolfa1.5741271192WOct 9 · 10:00J. Stolfa2.251151111113J. Pozarsky1.5731181362WOct 5 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.57451111123M. Vedmoch2.25111196102WOct 5 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.831111113M. Vedmoch1.838560WOct 5 · 15:30F. Just1.531111111102J. Stolfa2.38811139123WOct 5 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.3611116123M. Sedlak3.006811101
J. Zuzanek10
LOct 10 · 11:00V. Dvorak1.7311811113J. Zuzanek2.00911961LOct 10 · 10:30J. Zuzanek2.005660M. Nohejl1.731111113WOct 10 · 08:59V. Dvorak1.7312951172J. Zuzanek2.001011115113LOct 10 · 08:30J. Zuzanek1.9149100V. Dvorak1.801111123LOct 10 · 07:00J. Zuzanek2.0081111782M. Nohejl1.73117711113LOct 10 · 06:00M. Klement1.531111113J. Zuzanek2.384890LOct 8 · 01:30J. Zuzanek1.837930V. Vejvoda1.831111113LOct 8 · 00:30T. Batog1.801111113J. Zuzanek1.919350WOct 7 · 23:30M. Regner1.73451141J. Zuzanek2.0011119113WOct 7 · 22:30J. Zuzanek1.91911811113M. Sychra1.8011911942
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