TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Urbaniec vs Jiri Louda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210118911116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:06 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Radim Urbaniec at 64.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 37–19 Jiri Louda Jiri Louda has won 19 of their 56 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 07:06Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 1.50 · Won
64.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-19 in 56
Urbaniec
Correct
gap of 18 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1707 vs Louda 1616
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 40% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 30% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -1 · Louda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Urbaniec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.50 / Louda 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Urbaniec)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268525
Urbaniec1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite64% won 175 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it78% 125 of 160
Louda2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec7wins
AwayLouda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec100%3 of 3
AwayLouda42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec3Louda7n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Urbaniec7Louda3n = 10Urbaniec took 7 of 10
S3Urbaniec8Louda2n = 10Urbaniec took 8 of 10
S4Urbaniec6Louda2n = 8Urbaniec took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecLoudaU − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.736.0+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime693 / 1362 vs 609 / 119650.9%50.9%693 / 1362 vs 609 / 1196Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.50/Louda 2.50
Hit
What we said
64.5%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radim Urbaniec @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–1
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 08:30R. Urbaniec4312119113J. Louda351081161
WSep 19 · 18:00R. Urbaniec331111113J. Louda164570
WSep 17 · 15:00R. Urbaniec43101111113J. Louda30127831
LSep 13 · 22:00R. Urbaniec4789111182J. Louda45111184113
WAug 30 · 16:59R. Urbaniec3631111113J. Louda31116951
LAug 30 · 16:30R. Urbaniec32571191J. Louda4211119113
WAug 28 · 19:00R. Urbaniec331111113J. Louda249870
LAug 18 · 20:00R. Urbaniec38616791J. Louda47111411113
WJul 14 · 17:30R. Urbaniec47581112113J. Louda47111171082
WJul 14 · 16:30R. Urbaniec4561511133J. Louda4311138111
R. Urbaniec10
LOct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.57711761F. Pusch2.2511711113WOct 10 · 06:00A. Barton1.449127101R. Urbaniec2.63111011123LOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770WOct 9 · 16:30R. Wagner2.10118111172R. Urbaniec1.67211134113LOct 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.2051161162J. Mecl Jr1.61117117113LOct 9 · 14:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637950LOct 9 · 13:00J. Ruzicka1.431411133113R. Urbaniec2.60124151192LOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113LOct 9 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.639460WOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962
J. Louda10
WOct 10 · 09:00A. Barton1.5011990J. Louda2.501311113WOct 10 · 07:30J. Louda3.001312125123A. Barton1.3615101011102LOct 10 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73561111133J. Louda2.00111149112WOct 8 · 21:00P. Saleny1.807530J. Louda1.911111113LOct 8 · 20:30J. Louda2.3884100M. Wagner1.531111123LOct 8 · 19:00J. Louda2.1010350P. Saleny1.671211113LOct 8 · 18:00T. Zahradnik1.6111111110113J. Louda2.2081321292LOct 6 · 09:30M. Regner1.8391211113J. Louda1.831110571LOct 6 · 08:30M. Regner1.831111710113J. Louda1.8398111262WOct 6 · 07:30J. Louda1.5711111113V. Vejvoda2.25671151
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