TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Frantisek Pusch vs Jiri Louda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5116111141191311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Pusch to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Pusch above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 92 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Frantisek Pusch at 54.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Pusch 2–2 Jiri Louda Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2054.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pusch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pusch 1720 vs Louda 1610
Pusch
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pusch 20% vs Louda 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pusch 30% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pusch -1 · Louda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Pusch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPusch 1.727 / Louda 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Pusch)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268298
Pusch1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 29) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 26 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Louda2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePusch2wins
AwayLouda2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pusch2Louda2n = 4split evenly
S2Pusch0Louda4n = 4Louda took 4 of 4
S3Pusch3Louda1n = 4Pusch took 3 of 4
S4Pusch2Louda2n = 4split evenly
S5Pusch2Louda1n = 3Pusch took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPuschLoudaP − LBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.247.0−6.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPuschLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 170 vs 608 / 119453.5%50.9%91 / 170 vs 608 / 1194Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PuschPusch 1.73/Louda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Pusch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pusch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 10 · 06:30F. Pusch46561111133J. Louda46111149112
LAug 7 · 19:00F. Pusch22112541J. Louda4291111113
LMar 28 · 14:30F. Pusch47115138102J. Louda538111111123
WMar 28 · 12:00F. Pusch46761111113J. Louda4711119882
F. Pusch10
WOct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.57711761F. Pusch2.2511711113LSep 29 · 17:01F. Pusch2.7586100R. Urbaniec1.401111123WSep 29 · 16:30J. Ruzicka1.91109111292F. Pusch1.801211410113LSep 29 · 15:30F. Pusch2.10761151O. Svacha1.6711118113LSep 29 · 14:30R. Urbaniec1.61131165113F. Pusch2.20118111172LSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840LSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113WSep 29 · 11:00F. Pusch2.38119117113R. Urbaniec1.5371141142WSep 29 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk1.6171111872F. Pusch2.20119611113LSep 28 · 16:58F. Pusch1.91711291V. Nohejl1.8011611113
J. Louda10
WOct 8 · 21:00P. Saleny1.807530J. Louda1.911111113LOct 8 · 20:30J. Louda2.3884100M. Wagner1.531111123LOct 8 · 19:00J. Louda2.1010350P. Saleny1.671211113LOct 8 · 18:00T. Zahradnik1.6111111110113J. Louda2.2081321292LOct 6 · 09:30M. Regner1.8391211113J. Louda1.831110571LOct 6 · 08:30M. Regner1.831111710113J. Louda1.8398111262WOct 6 · 07:30J. Louda1.5711111113V. Vejvoda2.25671151WOct 6 · 06:30M. Sychra2.2581171192J. Louda1.57113114113WOct 3 · 17:30M. Pikous1.9162100J. Louda1.801111123LOct 3 · 16:30J. Louda1.57111461242M. Sychra2.256121114113
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