TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Jiri Louda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191187111012116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Jiri Louda at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 72–64 Jiri Louda Jiri Louda has won 64 of their 136 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
72-64 in 136
Regner
Correct
gap of 8 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1645 vs Louda 1656
Louda
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 100% vs Louda 80%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Louda 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +7 · Louda +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Louda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.833 / Louda 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Louda)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13248597
Regner1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Louda1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayLouda6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLouda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner80%4 of 5
AwayLouda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S2Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S4Regner3Louda3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerLoudaR − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.335.7−1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime525 / 1079 vs 613 / 119548.7%51.3%525 / 1079 vs 613 / 1195Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaRegner 1.83/Louda 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 17:30M. Regner4661391172J. Louda521111118113
WSep 28 · 16:30M. Regner331111113J. Louda198470
LSep 13 · 03:00M. Regner2010280J. Louda341211113
WSep 12 · 22:00M. Regner4211711133J. Louda366118111
WSep 11 · 00:30M. Regner3811511113J. Louda27311761
LAug 15 · 22:30M. Regner31951161J. Louda3711114113
LAug 6 · 00:30M. Regner2641570J. Louda391117113
WAug 2 · 23:00M. Regner331111113J. Louda258890
LAug 2 · 11:00M. Regner32511971J. Louda4211911113
LAug 1 · 07:30M. Regner4211116862J. Louda46671111113
M. Regner10
WOct 6 · 09:30M. Regner1.8391211113J. Louda1.831110571WOct 6 · 07:00M. Regner1.80611117113M. Sychra1.9111671152WOct 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.7311671482M. Regner2.003111112113WOct 3 · 13:30M. Regner1.859111011133M. Klement1.85119128112WOct 3 · 12:30J. Zuzanek1.91811881M. Regner1.8011911113WOct 3 · 11:30M. Regner1.831121112113M. Klement1.83131191012WOct 3 · 10:30M. Sychra1.918850M. Regner1.801111113WOct 2 · 02:00M. Vondrak1.67881161M. Regner2.1011116113LOct 2 · 00:30M. Regner1.808135141M. Sychra1.91111111163LOct 1 · 23:00M. Regner2.206890S. Kasnik1.611111113
J. Louda10
LOct 6 · 09:30M. Regner1.8391211113J. Louda1.831110571WOct 6 · 07:30J. Louda1.5711111113V. Vejvoda2.25671151WOct 6 · 06:30M. Sychra2.2581171192J. Louda1.57113114113WOct 3 · 17:30M. Pikous1.9162100J. Louda1.801111123LOct 3 · 16:30J. Louda1.57111461242M. Sychra2.256121114113WOct 3 · 15:00J. Louda1.5371111113J. Zuzanek2.38115631LOct 3 · 14:00M. Pikous1.83911911113J. Louda1.8311711812WOct 2 · 17:30R. Wagner1.6311115952J. Louda2.15871111113WOct 2 · 16:30J. Louda1.4411159123V. Vejvoda2.6331311101LOct 2 · 15:00J. Louda2.00117591R. Wagner1.7391111113
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