TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Viktor Vejvoda vs Michal Regner 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1136117111412811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViktor Vejvoda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Vejvoda above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Viktor Vejvoda at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Vejvoda 35–32 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 32 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vejvoda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-32 in 67
Vejvoda
Wrong
gap of 3 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vejvoda 1606 vs Regner 1635
Regner
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vejvoda 60% vs Regner 100%
Regner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vejvoda 60% vs Regner 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vejvoda -1 · Regner +5
Regner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vejvoda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVejvoda 1.727 / Regner 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vejvoda)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13247488
Vejvoda1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 168 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 112 of 136
Regner2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 110 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back20% 24 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVejvoda4wins
AwayRegner6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVejvoda80%4 of 5
AwayRegner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vejvoda5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Vejvoda5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Vejvoda7Regner3n = 10Vejvoda took 7 of 10
S4Vejvoda4Regner2n = 6Vejvoda took 4 of 6
S5Vejvoda0Regner4n = 4Regner took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVejvodaRegnerV − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.3+0.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVejvodaRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 893 vs 524 / 107852.1%48.6%465 / 893 vs 524 / 1078Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VejvodaVejvoda 1.73/Regner 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vejvoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda4611671482M. Regner483111112113
LSep 30 · 07:30V. Vejvoda3975111152M. Regner47111186113
WSep 24 · 11:00V. Vejvoda4312911113M. Regner351011951
LSep 23 · 00:30V. Vejvoda2457120M. Regner361111143
LSep 19 · 07:30V. Vejvoda36841681M. Regner47111114113
WSep 18 · 01:30V. Vejvoda331111113M. Regner218940
LAug 24 · 23:00V. Vejvoda46151131162M. Regner45173113113
WAug 2 · 10:00V. Vejvoda361111143M. Regner2392120
WJul 19 · 03:04V. Vejvoda331111113M. Regner198470
LJul 19 · 02:00V. Vejvoda52411116202M. Regner62119911223
V. Vejvoda10
LOct 5 · 03:30V. Vejvoda2.305912131R. Wagner1.55111110153WOct 5 · 02:00V. Vejvoda2.63111011113R. Wagner1.44912491WOct 5 · 01:00V. Vejvoda2.631111109113O. Svacha1.4483121162LOct 5 · 00:00M. Skakal1.53414811123V. Vejvoda2.381112117102WOct 4 · 22:30T. Franek1.574111361V. Vejvoda2.2511815113WOct 4 · 21:30M. Skakal1.408119101V. Vejvoda2.7511411123WOct 4 · 20:30V. Vejvoda2.6311711153O. Cmerda1.448115131LOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113WOct 4 · 18:00T. Franek1.6181181132V. Vejvoda2.20118118113LOct 2 · 17:12M. Pikous1.431111113V. Vejvoda2.605940
M. Regner10
WOct 3 · 13:30M. Regner1.859111011133M. Klement1.85119128112WOct 3 · 12:30J. Zuzanek1.91811881M. Regner1.8011911113WOct 3 · 11:30M. Regner1.831121112113M. Klement1.83131191012WOct 3 · 10:30M. Sychra1.918850M. Regner1.801111113WOct 2 · 02:00M. Vondrak1.67881161M. Regner2.1011116113LOct 2 · 00:30M. Regner1.808135141M. Sychra1.91111111163LOct 1 · 23:00M. Regner2.206890S. Kasnik1.611111113LOct 1 · 22:00M. Klement1.83111211113M. Regner1.83714651LOct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.611311113M. Regner2.2011480LOct 1 · 00:30M. Regner2.1041020M. Wagner1.671112113
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