TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Skakal vs Viktor Vejvoda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41114128111171210
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Viktor Vejvoda below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 100 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Martin Skakal at 63.2%
100 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 4–6 Viktor Vejvoda Martin Skakal has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Vejvoda beat Skakal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5463.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skakal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Vejvoda
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1698 vs Vejvoda 1603
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 40% vs Vejvoda 80%
Vejvoda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 50% vs Vejvoda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal -3 · Vejvoda +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Skakal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vejvoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 1.533 / Vejvoda 2.375
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Skakal)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238533
Skakal1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 40 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Vejvoda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 83 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkakal4wins
AwayVejvoda6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVejvoda leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkakal80%4 of 5
AwayVejvoda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skakal5Vejvoda5n = 10split evenly
S2Skakal3Vejvoda7n = 10Vejvoda took 7 of 10
S3Skakal7Vejvoda3n = 10Skakal took 7 of 10
S4Skakal2Vejvoda4n = 6Vejvoda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkakalVejvodaS − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.532.8+1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalVejvodaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 188 vs 463 / 89252.7%51.9%99 / 188 vs 463 / 892Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalSkakal 1.53/Vejvoda 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 21:30M. Skakal388119101V. Vejvoda3811411123
WOct 4 · 19:00M. Skakal43111011113V. Vejvoda30812731
WSep 22 · 23:00M. Skakal331111113V. Vejvoda173770
WSep 18 · 02:58M. Skakal331111113V. Vejvoda227960
WSep 17 · 23:30M. Skakal3511211113V. Vejvoda31411881
LAug 31 · 03:30M. Skakal32691161V. Vejvoda3911116113
LAug 31 · 02:30M. Skakal2571260V. Vejvoda361114113
LJul 18 · 22:30M. Skakal4611911962V. Vejvoda42511411113
LJul 18 · 19:00M. Skakal388811111V. Vejvoda4011115133
LMay 4 · 01:00M. Skakal228950V. Vejvoda331111113
M. Skakal10
LOct 5 · 01:30T. Franek1.67119612113M. Skakal2.10811111092LOct 4 · 23:00R. Wagner1.61811411113M. Skakal2.2011111372LOct 4 · 21:30M. Skakal1.408119101V. Vejvoda2.7511411123LOct 4 · 20:00T. Franek1.6741111113M. Skakal2.10117691WOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113WOct 4 · 18:30M. Skakal1.83111111113O. Cmerda1.83133431LOct 1 · 03:30M. Wagner1.771111123M. Skakal1.9399100LOct 1 · 02:30M. Skakal1.61811381J. Tazler2.2011811113WOct 1 · 01:30M. Wagner2.2511961172M. Skakal1.57711119113WOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040
V. Vejvoda10
WOct 5 · 01:00V. Vejvoda2.631111109113O. Svacha1.4483121162WOct 4 · 22:30T. Franek1.574111361V. Vejvoda2.2511815113WOct 4 · 21:30M. Skakal1.408119101V. Vejvoda2.7511411123WOct 4 · 20:30V. Vejvoda2.6311711153O. Cmerda1.448115131LOct 4 · 19:00V. Vejvoda3.75812731M. Skakal1.25111011113WOct 4 · 18:00T. Franek1.6181181132V. Vejvoda2.20118118113LOct 2 · 17:12M. Pikous1.431111113V. Vejvoda2.605940LOct 2 · 16:30J. Louda1.4411159123V. Vejvoda2.6331311101LOct 2 · 15:30V. Vejvoda2.63413761M. Pikous1.44111111113LOct 2 · 14:31R. Wagner1.461111113V. Vejvoda2.556880
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