TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Radim Urbaniec 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1128111113114711
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Radim Urbaniec at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 3–3 Radim Urbaniec Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Wagner beat Urbaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2254.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1762 vs Urbaniec 1694
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Urbaniec 0%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Urbaniec 20%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Urbaniec -5
Urbaniec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Urbaniec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 2.10 / Urbaniec 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Urbaniec)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264694
Wagner2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 37 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Urbaniec1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 174 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it78% 126 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWagner3wins
AwayUrbaniec3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner60%3 of 5
AwayUrbaniecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Urbaniec1n = 6Wagner took 5 of 6
S2Wagner2Urbaniec4n = 6Urbaniec took 4 of 6
S3Wagner3Urbaniec3n = 6split evenly
S4Wagner2Urbaniec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricWagnerUrbaniecW − UBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match34.532.5+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 253 vs 690 / 135755.3%50.9%140 / 253 vs 690 / 1357Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecWagner 2.10/Urbaniec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 9 · 12:00R. Wagner4415711113R. Urbaniec331311631
WSep 17 · 10:00R. Wagner4111811113R. Urbaniec25311741
LAug 12 · 11:30R. Wagner198740R. Urbaniec331111113
LAug 10 · 20:58R. Wagner46111168102R. Urbaniec45651111123
LAug 10 · 19:30R. Wagner23111741R. Urbaniec3851111113
WAug 8 · 18:30R. Wagner341111123R. Urbaniec2174100
R. Wagner10
WOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770WOct 9 · 15:00R. Wagner2.38115511113J. Ruzicka1.5391111862LOct 9 · 14:00J. Mecl Jr1.67143611113R. Wagner2.10121111982LOct 9 · 13:30O. Svacha1.851111113R. Wagner1.858370WOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113LOct 9 · 11:00O. Svacha2.201211113R. Wagner1.6110530WOct 9 · 10:30R. Wagner2.1071111113J. Ruzicka1.67119791LOct 6 · 21:28R. Wagner1.61771291J. Tazler2.20111110113WOct 6 · 20:30T. Zahradnik2.005660R. Wagner1.731111113WOct 6 · 19:30R. Wagner1.731111113O. Cmerda2.007350
R. Urbaniec10
LOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770LOct 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.2051161162J. Mecl Jr1.61117117113LOct 9 · 14:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637950LOct 9 · 13:00J. Ruzicka1.431411133113R. Urbaniec2.60124151192LOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113LOct 9 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.639460WOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962WOct 8 · 17:05V. Nohejl3.106570R. Urbaniec1.301111113LOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113LOct 8 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.91132641V. Nohejl1.80111111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Wagner
R. Urbaniec
Oct 10 · 06:00R. Urbaniec2.63A. Barton1.44—Oct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.57F. Pusch2.25—Oct 10 · 08:30R. Urbaniec1.44J. Louda2.63—Oct 10 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.61O. Svacha2.20—Oct 10 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.10R. Wagner1.67—Oct 11 · 01:00R. Urbaniec2.20M. Klimenta1.61—Oct 11 · 02:30R. Urbaniec3.00J. Simecek1.36—
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