TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Svacha vs Richard Wagner 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115113––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:57 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Svacha above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 52 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Richard Wagner at 58.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Svacha 2–5 Richard Wagner Ondrej Svacha has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5758.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svacha 1710 vs Wagner 1780
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svacha 40% vs Wagner 80%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svacha 60% vs Wagner 80%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svacha -2 · Wagner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvacha 2.20 / Wagner 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Wagner)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264769
Svacha2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 83 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Wagner1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 85 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 63 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSvacha2wins
AwayWagner5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderWagner leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvacha66.7%2 of 3
AwayWagner100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svacha3Wagner4n = 7Wagner took 4 of 7
S2Svacha4Wagner3n = 7Svacha took 4 of 7
S3Svacha4Wagner3n = 7Svacha took 4 of 7
S4Svacha2Wagner3n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5Svacha0Wagner3n = 3Wagner took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSvachaWagnerS − WBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.439.9−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvachaWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 807 vs 138 / 24850.1%55.7%404 / 807 vs 138 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerSvacha 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svacha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 4 · 22:00O. Svacha2357110R. Wagner351111133
LOct 2 · 21:30O. Svacha5011817952R. Wagner557111511113
LOct 2 · 19:00O. Svacha4381141192R. Wagner39116110113
LSep 29 · 01:00O. Svacha334118101R. Wagner4211811123
WAug 10 · 20:30O. Svacha331111113R. Wagner173950
LAug 5 · 03:30O. Svacha52911111292R. Wagner52117914113
WAug 4 · 22:00O. Svacha4211811123R. Wagner399119101
O. Svacha10
LOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962LOct 7 · 03:30M. Wagner2.0011712113O. Svacha1.739111071WOct 7 · 02:00M. Wagner2.1391111762O. Svacha1.56118311113LOct 7 · 00:30O. Svacha1.67117571M. Skakal2.1071111113WOct 6 · 23:00O. Svacha1.831111113M. Hampl1.835670WOct 6 · 22:00T. Franek2.10118991O. Svacha1.6751111113WOct 5 · 02:58O. Svacha1.911111123T. Franek1.8072100WOct 5 · 02:30M. Skakal1.835590O. Svacha1.831111113LOct 5 · 01:00V. Vejvoda2.631111109113O. Svacha1.4483121162WOct 4 · 23:30O. Svacha1.911113113T. Franek1.8051150
R. Wagner10
WOct 9 · 10:30R. Wagner2.1071111113J. Ruzicka1.67119791LOct 6 · 21:28R. Wagner1.61771291J. Tazler2.20111110113WOct 6 · 20:30T. Zahradnik2.005660R. Wagner1.731111113WOct 6 · 19:30R. Wagner1.731111113O. Cmerda2.007350WOct 6 · 18:30J. Tazler2.1048111192R. Wagner1.67111187113WOct 6 · 17:30R. Wagner1.61121111113M. Sychra2.20147581LOct 6 · 16:00J. Tazler2.10512511113R. Wagner1.67111011892WOct 6 · 15:00M. Pikous2.1091181172R. Wagner1.67117117113WOct 6 · 14:30R. Wagner1.8311711123M. Sychra1.838116101WOct 5 · 03:30V. Vejvoda2.305912131R. Wagner1.55111110153
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