TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Ondrej Cmerda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113115––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Ondrej Cmerda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 48 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Richard Wagner at 56.5%
48 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:1256.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1764 vs Cmerda 1630
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Cmerda 40%
Wagner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 70% vs Cmerda 20%
Wagner
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +2 · Cmerda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.727 / Cmerda 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Wagner)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249155
Wagner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 80 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Cmerda2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerCmerdaBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 244 vs 168 / 33355.3%50.5%135 / 244 vs 168 / 333Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.73/Cmerda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wagner won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
R. Wagner10
WOct 6 · 18:30J. Tazler2.1048111192R. Wagner1.67111187113WOct 6 · 17:30R. Wagner1.61121111113M. Sychra2.20147581LOct 6 · 16:00J. Tazler2.10512511113R. Wagner1.67111011892WOct 6 · 15:00M. Pikous2.1091181172R. Wagner1.67117117113WOct 6 · 14:30R. Wagner1.8311711123M. Sychra1.838116101WOct 5 · 03:30V. Vejvoda2.305912131R. Wagner1.55111110153LOct 5 · 02:00V. Vejvoda2.63111011113R. Wagner1.44912491LOct 5 · 00:30R. Wagner1.6791171172T. Franek2.10116116113WOct 4 · 23:00R. Wagner1.61811411113M. Skakal2.2011111372WOct 4 · 22:00O. Svacha1.9157110R. Wagner1.801111133
O. Cmerda10
LOct 6 · 20:00O. Cmerda2.008770J. Tazler1.731111113LOct 6 · 18:00O. Cmerda1.807760T. Zahradnik1.911111113WOct 4 · 20:59O. Cmerda1.9112118113T. Franek1.801081151LOct 4 · 20:30V. Vejvoda2.6311711153O. Cmerda1.448115131WOct 4 · 19:30O. Cmerda2.101112133T. Franek1.67910110LOct 4 · 18:30M. Skakal1.83111111113O. Cmerda1.83133431LSep 30 · 20:59O. Svacha1.80111210113O. Cmerda1.917101291LSep 30 · 20:30O. Svacha1.831111128113O. Cmerda1.8349141182LSep 30 · 19:30O. Cmerda1.80611681R. Rose1.9111511113LSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100
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