TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Tomas Franek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116711116711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:26 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Tomas Franek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Richard Wagner at 58.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 1–0 Tomas Franek Tomas Franek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2658.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1770 vs Franek 1629
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 100% vs Franek 20%
Wagner
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 90% vs Franek 30%
Wagner
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +6 · Franek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Franek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.666 / Franek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wagner)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238408
Wagner1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Franek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 26 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWagner1wins
AwayFranek0wins
Wagner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWagnerFranekW − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.039.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerFranekBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 236 vs 94 / 19255.1%49%130 / 236 vs 94 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.67/Franek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Franek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 24 · 02:30R. Wagner4311911123T. Franek399119101
R. Wagner10
WOct 4 · 23:00R. Wagner1.61811411113M. Skakal2.2011111372WOct 4 · 22:00O. Svacha1.9157110R. Wagner1.801111133WOct 2 · 21:30R. Wagner2.207111511113O. Svacha1.6011817952WOct 2 · 20:00R. Rose2.0031370R. Wagner1.731115113WOct 2 · 19:00O. Svacha1.6781141192R. Wagner2.10116110113WOct 2 · 18:30R. Wagner1.61119411113A. Brazda2.2041111562LOct 2 · 17:30R. Wagner1.6311115952J. Louda2.15871111113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Pikous1.837101191R. Wagner1.8311128113WOct 2 · 15:00J. Louda2.00117591R. Wagner1.7391111113WOct 2 · 14:31R. Wagner1.461111113V. Vejvoda2.556880
T. Franek10
WOct 5 · 01:30T. Franek1.67119612113M. Skakal2.10811111092LOct 4 · 23:30O. Svacha1.911113113T. Franek1.8051150LOct 4 · 22:30T. Franek1.574111361V. Vejvoda2.2511815113LOct 4 · 20:59O. Cmerda1.9112118113T. Franek1.801081151WOct 4 · 20:00T. Franek1.6741111113M. Skakal2.10117691LOct 4 · 19:30O. Cmerda2.101112133T. Franek1.67910110LOct 4 · 18:00T. Franek1.6181181132V. Vejvoda2.20118118113LSep 27 · 03:30J. Tazler2.1561511113T. Franek1.631113761WSep 27 · 02:30T. Franek1.801111113M. Skakal1.916450LSep 27 · 01:30J. Tazler1.801211113T. Franek1.9110730
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