TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radek Rose vs Richard Wagner 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111315711––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Rose above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 60 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Radek Rose 1–2 Richard Wagner Radek Rose has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rose 1706 vs Wagner 1728
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rose 60% vs Wagner 80%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rose 50% vs Wagner 70%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rose +1 · Wagner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRose 2.00 / Wagner 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wagner)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228132
Rose2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 18 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Wagner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRose1wins
AwayWagner2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderWagner leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rose1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S2Rose1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S3Rose1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S4Rose3Wagner0n = 3Rose took 3 of 3
S5Rose1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRoseWagnerR − WBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.345.3−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRoseWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 345 vs 126 / 23246.4%54.3%160 / 345 vs 126 / 232Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerRose 2.00/Wagner 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 13 · 03:29R. Rose4031171182R. Wagner46119114113
LSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose4711981272R. Wagner496111110113
WAug 10 · 18:30R. Rose46941111113R. Wagner4111118742
R. Rose10
WOct 2 · 19:30A. Brazda2.7510790R. Rose1.401211113LOct 2 · 18:00R. Rose3.004840O. Svacha1.361111113LSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162WSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:30O. Cmerda1.80611681R. Rose1.9111511113LSep 30 · 18:00R. Rose2.75941191O. Svacha1.4011114113WSep 28 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.45611981R. Rose2.5511911113LSep 28 · 12:30R. Urbaniec2.20831113113R. Rose1.61111181162WSep 28 · 11:30R. Rose1.5711119113F. Pusch2.25691121LSep 28 · 10:30J. Ruzicka1.5051111113R. Rose2.50116981
R. Wagner10
WOct 2 · 19:00O. Svacha1.6781141192R. Wagner2.10116110113WOct 2 · 18:30R. Wagner1.61119411113A. Brazda2.2041111562LOct 2 · 17:30R. Wagner1.6311115952J. Louda2.15871111113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Pikous1.837101191R. Wagner1.8311128113WOct 2 · 15:00J. Louda2.00117591R. Wagner1.7391111113WOct 2 · 14:31R. Wagner1.461111113V. Vejvoda2.556880WSep 29 · 03:30J. Tazler1.8711871182R. Wagner1.83811112113LSep 29 · 02:00R. Wagner1.5781111682S. Kasnik2.25116911113WSep 29 · 01:00R. Wagner2.2511811123O. Svacha1.574118101LSep 29 · 00:00J. Tazler1.91119714113R. Wagner1.80911111282
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