TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Cmerda vs Jakub Tazler 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jakub Tazler @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingOndrej Cmerda above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Tazler at 56.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Cmerda 0–1 Jakub Tazler Ondrej Cmerda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:5156.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tazler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cmerda 1621 vs Tazler 1669
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cmerda 40% vs Tazler 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cmerda 20% vs Tazler 40%
Tazler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cmerda -2 · Tazler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Tazler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCmerda 2.00 / Tazler 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Tazler)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249107
Cmerda2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 8 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Tazler1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 78 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCmerda0wins
AwayTazler1wins
Tazler leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCmerdaTazlerC − TBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.044.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCmerdaTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 334 vs 415 / 76250.3%54.5%168 / 334 vs 415 / 762Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerCmerda 2.00/Tazler 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Tazler @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 19 · 08:30O. Cmerda378111171J. Tazler4411913113
O. Cmerda10
LOct 6 · 19:30R. Wagner1.731111113O. Cmerda2.007350LOct 6 · 18:00O. Cmerda1.807760T. Zahradnik1.911111113WOct 4 · 20:59O. Cmerda1.9112118113T. Franek1.801081151LOct 4 · 20:30V. Vejvoda2.6311711153O. Cmerda1.448115131WOct 4 · 19:30O. Cmerda2.101112133T. Franek1.67910110LOct 4 · 18:30M. Skakal1.83111111113O. Cmerda1.83133431LSep 30 · 20:59O. Svacha1.80111210113O. Cmerda1.917101291LSep 30 · 20:30O. Svacha1.831111128113O. Cmerda1.8349141182LSep 30 · 19:30O. Cmerda1.80611681R. Rose1.9111511113LSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100
J. Tazler10
WOct 6 · 19:00T. Zahradnik1.73712381J. Tazler2.00111011113LOct 6 · 18:30J. Tazler2.1048111192R. Wagner1.67111187113LOct 6 · 17:00M. Pikous1.951111113J. Tazler1.759980WOct 6 · 16:00J. Tazler2.10512511113R. Wagner1.67111011892LOct 6 · 15:30M. Sychra2.0011111111123J. Tazler1.73135913102LOct 6 · 14:00J. Tazler1.61311991M. Pikous2.2011711113LOct 1 · 03:00J. Tazler1.7311115782S. Kasnik2.00991111113WOct 1 · 02:30M. Skakal1.61811381J. Tazler2.2011811113WOct 1 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.83491141J. Tazler1.8311119113LSep 30 · 23:30J. Tazler2.207560M. Wagner1.611111113
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