TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Radim Urbaniec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 64.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 54–28 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 28 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1764.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-28 in 82
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 26 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1779 vs Urbaniec 1745
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Urbaniec 40%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Urbaniec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -1 · Urbaniec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.444 / Urbaniec 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Ruzicka)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264864
Ruzicka1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 174 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it95% 96 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it78% 132 of 169
Urbaniec2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back23% 60 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka9wins
AwayUrbaniec1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka85.7%6 of 7
AwayUrbaniec0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka7Urbaniec3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Ruzicka8Urbaniec2n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10
S3Ruzicka5Urbaniec5n = 10split evenly
S4Ruzicka8Urbaniec1n = 9Ruzicka took 8 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecR − UBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.334.8+8.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime697 / 1416 vs 690 / 135249.2%51%697 / 1416 vs 690 / 1352Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.44/Urbaniec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 10:30J. Ruzicka5310101111113R. Urbaniec3712123372
WSep 28 · 11:00J. Ruzicka4181111113R. Urbaniec32116691
WSep 24 · 23:30J. Ruzicka4011117113R. Urbaniec32581181
WSep 19 · 00:00J. Ruzicka44111111113R. Urbaniec34691361
WSep 15 · 12:59J. Ruzicka4181111113R. Urbaniec29116751
WSep 15 · 12:30J. Ruzicka4011117113R. Urbaniec27461161
WSep 15 · 08:30J. Ruzicka361112133R. Urbaniec26510110
WSep 14 · 02:30J. Ruzicka50111116123R. Urbaniec469918101
WSep 12 · 19:30J. Ruzicka4211911113R. Urbaniec33711691
LSep 12 · 16:59J. Ruzicka46151146102R. Urbaniec521351111123
J. Ruzicka10
LOct 9 · 12:30O. Svacha1.731114113J. Ruzicka2.0031260LOct 9 · 10:30R. Wagner2.1071111113J. Ruzicka1.67119791WOct 8 · 02:00E. Mares1.67811157112J. Ruzicka2.101171311133LOct 8 · 00:30J. Ruzicka2.1076100T. Postelt1.671111123LOct 7 · 23:00J. Ruzicka2.386111161J. Vales1.5311713113LOct 7 · 22:00L. Zeman1.531111113J. Ruzicka2.387580LOct 6 · 13:28L. Jindrak1.3016119113J. Ruzicka3.401481181WOct 6 · 12:30J. Vales1.5341111752J. Ruzicka2.38116811113WOct 6 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.501112113E. Mares1.5051090LOct 6 · 10:30L. Jindrak1.331211113J. Ruzicka3.2510450
R. Urbaniec10
LOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113WOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962WOct 8 · 17:05V. Nohejl3.106570R. Urbaniec1.301111113LOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113LOct 8 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.91132641V. Nohejl1.80111111113LOct 8 · 14:00M. Jezek1.731111113R. Urbaniec2.009980LOct 7 · 17:30J. Nesnera2.2014119113R. Urbaniec1.611241131WOct 7 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.20111311113M. Jezek1.611311771LOct 7 · 15:00R. Urbaniec2.385430F. Wolf1.531111113WOct 7 · 14:00J. Nesnera1.611161391R. Urbaniec2.20131111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Ruzicka
R. Urbaniec
Oct 9 · 14:30R. Urbaniec2.63J. Ruzicka1.44—Oct 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.20J. Mecl Jr1.61—Oct 9 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.67R. Wagner2.10—Oct 10 · 06:00R. Urbaniec2.63A. Barton1.44—Oct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.53F. Pusch2.38—Oct 10 · 08:30R. Urbaniec—J. Louda——Oct 10 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.61O. Svacha2.20—Oct 10 · 23:30R. Urbaniec—R. Wagner——Oct 11 · 01:00R. Urbaniec2.20M. Klimenta1.61—Oct 11 · 02:30R. Urbaniec2.75J. Simecek1.40—
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