TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Ruzicka vs Erik Mares 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210119––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched: 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Erik Mares at 61.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 8–10 Erik Mares Jiri Ruzicka has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2561.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 5.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Mares
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1797 vs Mares 1768
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Mares 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Mares 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -2 · Mares -4
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Mares) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.50 / Mares 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Mares)-5.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248001
Ruzicka2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 135 of 344
Down 0–1, comes back19% 42 of 217
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 114
Mares1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 156 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it87% 100 of 115
Up 1–0, closes it71% 134 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayMares5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Ruzicka4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Mares4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka4Mares4n = 8split evenly
S5Ruzicka3Mares1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaMaresR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.744.5−2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime702 / 1421 vs 607 / 121949.4%49.8%702 / 1421 vs 607 / 1219Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaresRuzicka 2.50/Mares 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.1%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 10:30J. Ruzicka269890E. Mares331111113
LOct 2 · 13:30J. Ruzicka391411951E. Mares4616811113
WOct 2 · 12:00J. Ruzicka4111811113E. Mares32411891
WOct 2 · 08:00J. Ruzicka46101312113E. Mares4112111081
WSep 17 · 00:00J. Ruzicka571015129113E. Mares551213101192
WSep 3 · 12:59J. Ruzicka511111711113E. Mares4571311952
LSep 3 · 11:30J. Ruzicka3961113092E. Mares531191111113
WAug 1 · 16:30J. Ruzicka56591215153E. Mares5811111013132
LJun 22 · 13:00J. Ruzicka214980E. Mares331111113
LJun 22 · 10:30J. Ruzicka41591891E. Mares49111116113
J. Ruzicka10
LOct 6 · 10:30L. Jindrak1.331211113J. Ruzicka3.2510450LOct 6 · 09:00J. Kycelt1.40111174113J. Ruzicka2.7585111192WOct 6 · 08:30J. Vales1.53121111772J. Ruzicka2.38147411113LOct 6 · 07:30J. Ruzicka2.501112100L. Jindrak1.501314123LOct 6 · 06:30J. Kycelt1.441111113J. Ruzicka2.639790WOct 5 · 16:59J. Ruzicka2.50111011113E. Mares1.50912771LOct 5 · 16:30J. Ruzicka2.101011951V. Koubek1.6712711113WOct 5 · 15:00J. Ruzicka1.831171310123M. Huk1.839111112102LOct 5 · 14:00E. Mares1.57115129113J. Ruzicka2.25711101192LOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090
E. Mares10
WOct 6 · 12:00E. Mares2.381111113L. Jindrak1.536980LOct 6 · 10:00E. Mares1.91911111062J. Vales1.80116412113LOct 5 · 16:59J. Ruzicka2.50111011113E. Mares1.50912771LOct 5 · 16:00E. Mares1.50912961M. Huk2.50111011113LOct 5 · 15:30V. Koubek1.731111123E. Mares2.0075100WOct 5 · 14:00E. Mares1.57115129113J. Ruzicka2.25711101192WOct 5 · 13:06E. Mares1.571112113J. Ruzicka2.2571090LOct 5 · 12:00L. Zeman1.7351111113E. Mares2.00116971LOct 5 · 11:00M. Huk2.501081311113E. Mares1.50121111992WOct 5 · 10:30E. Mares1.671111113J. Ruzicka2.109890
Upcoming Matches
J. Ruzicka
E. Mares
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.