TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Svacha vs Jiri Ruzicka 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131412116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Svacha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Svacha above · Jiri Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Ondrej Svacha at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Svacha 67–64 Jiri Ruzicka Jiri Ruzicka has won 64 of their 131 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:1254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svacha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
67-64 in 131
Svacha
Correct
gap of 3 in 131, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svacha 1726 vs Ruzicka 1792
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svacha 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svacha 60% vs Ruzicka 40%
Svacha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svacha +1 · Ruzicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Svacha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svacha form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvacha 1.727 / Ruzicka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264709
Svacha1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 96 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it80% 76 of 95
Ruzicka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 135 of 344
Down 0–1, comes back19% 41 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvacha4wins
AwayRuzicka6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvacha80%4 of 5
AwayRuzicka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svacha5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Svacha6Ruzicka4n = 10Svacha took 6 of 10
S3Svacha6Ruzicka4n = 10Svacha took 6 of 10
S4Svacha2Ruzicka5n = 7Ruzicka took 5 of 7
S5Svacha1Ruzicka2n = 3Ruzicka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvachaRuzickaS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.4−2.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvachaRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 808 vs 698 / 141750.1%49.3%405 / 808 vs 698 / 1417Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaSvacha 1.73/Ruzicka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svacha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svacha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 17:30O. Svacha351411731J. Ruzicka4716911113
LSep 29 · 14:00O. Svacha327113111J. Ruzicka4211711133
WSep 25 · 03:30O. Svacha531112811113J. Ruzicka4981411882
WSep 24 · 22:30O. Svacha331111113J. Ruzicka229850
WSep 19 · 03:30O. Svacha331111113J. Ruzicka226880
LSep 19 · 02:30O. Svacha471211211112J. Ruzicka56149119133
LSep 14 · 00:00O. Svacha30931261J. Ruzicka43111110113
WSep 12 · 21:30O. Svacha361411113J. Ruzicka2612680
LSep 12 · 18:00O. Svacha46121411272J. Ruzicka541016611113
LSep 10 · 01:30O. Svacha36791281J. Ruzicka43111110113
O. Svacha10
WOct 9 · 11:00O. Svacha2.201211113R. Wagner1.6110530LOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962LOct 7 · 03:30M. Wagner2.0011712113O. Svacha1.739111071WOct 7 · 02:00M. Wagner2.1391111762O. Svacha1.56118311113LOct 7 · 00:30O. Svacha1.67117571M. Skakal2.1071111113WOct 6 · 23:00O. Svacha1.831111113M. Hampl1.835670WOct 6 · 22:00T. Franek2.10118991O. Svacha1.6751111113WOct 5 · 02:58O. Svacha1.911111123T. Franek1.8072100WOct 5 · 02:30M. Skakal1.835590O. Svacha1.831111113LOct 5 · 01:00V. Vejvoda2.631111109113O. Svacha1.4483121162
J. Ruzicka10
WOct 9 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.639460LOct 9 · 10:30R. Wagner2.1071111113J. Ruzicka1.67119791WOct 8 · 02:00E. Mares1.67811157112J. Ruzicka2.101171311133LOct 8 · 00:30J. Ruzicka2.1076100T. Postelt1.671111123LOct 7 · 23:00J. Ruzicka2.386111161J. Vales1.5311713113LOct 7 · 22:00L. Zeman1.531111113J. Ruzicka2.387580LOct 6 · 13:28L. Jindrak1.3016119113J. Ruzicka3.401481181WOct 6 · 12:30J. Vales1.5341111752J. Ruzicka2.38116811113WOct 6 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.501112113E. Mares1.5051090LOct 6 · 10:30L. Jindrak1.331211113J. Ruzicka3.2510450
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