TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ales Barton vs Radim Urbaniec 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91112107111012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Barton above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 82 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Ales Barton at 68.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 18–9 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5868.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Barton
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Barton
Wrong
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1790 vs Urbaniec 1710
Barton
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 80% vs Urbaniec 20%
Barton
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Urbaniec 30%
Barton
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +2 · Urbaniec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 1.444 / Urbaniec 2.625
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Barton)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13268253
Barton1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 80 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it71% 56 of 79
Urbaniec2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 477
Down 0–1, comes back22% 60 of 271
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton7wins
AwayUrbaniec3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBarton leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarton75%6 of 8
AwayUrbaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton8Urbaniec2n = 10Barton took 8 of 10
S2Barton7Urbaniec3n = 10Barton took 7 of 10
S3Barton5Urbaniec5n = 10split evenly
S4Barton3Urbaniec5n = 8Urbaniec took 5 of 8
S5Barton2Urbaniec1n = 3Barton took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonUrbaniecB − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.637.8+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 431 vs 692 / 136052.2%50.9%225 / 431 vs 692 / 1360Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 1.44/Urbaniec 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:00A. Barton389127101R. Urbaniec44111011123
WOct 8 · 16:30A. Barton5411111011113R. Urbaniec4795121382
LSep 27 · 15:30A. Barton371368101R. Urbaniec45111111123
WSep 25 · 02:58A. Barton331111113R. Urbaniec217860
WSep 25 · 02:30A. Barton50613115153R. Urbaniec501111411132
LSep 23 · 06:00A. Barton54141191282R. Urbaniec571291114113
WSep 11 · 06:00A. Barton4111118113R. Urbaniec30471181
WAug 29 · 11:30A. Barton331111113R. Urbaniec215880
WAug 17 · 14:30A. Barton3911611113R. Urbaniec29611571
WAug 11 · 15:00A. Barton3711411113R. Urbaniec34911861
A. Barton10
WOct 8 · 17:30M. Jezek2.0071111732A. Barton1.73116611113WOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113LOct 8 · 15:30A. Barton1.6712118972M. Jezek2.101071111113WOct 8 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.75971281A. Barton1.40111110113WOct 2 · 12:58A. Barton1.8011911113J. Simecek1.91411991WOct 2 · 12:30A. Barton1.83115911113J. Simecek1.8331111952LOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133WOct 2 · 10:00J. Ruzicka2.2541212592A. Barton1.5711101011113LSep 27 · 17:00A. Barton1.851191216112J. Mecl Jr1.854111414133LSep 27 · 16:00A. Barton1.5741111842F. Pusch2.2511851193
R. Urbaniec10
LOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770WOct 9 · 16:30R. Wagner2.10118111172R. Urbaniec1.67211134113LOct 9 · 15:30R. Urbaniec2.2051161162J. Mecl Jr1.61117117113LOct 9 · 14:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.637950LOct 9 · 13:00J. Ruzicka1.431411133113R. Urbaniec2.60124151192LOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113LOct 9 · 11:30J. Ruzicka1.441111113R. Urbaniec2.639460WOct 9 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57951111113O. Svacha2.2511115962WOct 8 · 17:05V. Nohejl3.106570R. Urbaniec1.301111113LOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113
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