TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Sergey Osipov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeSergey Osipov to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 56 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Sergey Osipov at 58.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 29–13 Sergey Osipov Sergey Osipov has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2958.2%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.7pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Osipov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-13 in 42
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1112 vs Osipov 1203
Osipov
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Osipov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Osipov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +3 · Osipov +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Osipov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.20 / Osipov 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Osipov)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266277
Ponomarenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 40 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Osipov1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 32 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayOsipov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%3 of 3
AwayOsipov42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Osipov7n = 10Osipov took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Osipov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko5Osipov5n = 10split evenly
S4Ponomarenko6Osipov1n = 7Ponomarenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoOsipovP − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.5+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 664 vs 130 / 26947.1%48.3%313 / 664 vs 130 / 269Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsipovPonomarenko 2.20/Osipov 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Osipov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko229490S. Osipov331111113
LAug 25 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko2256110S. Osipov351111133
WAug 18 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko4011117113S. Osipov32591171
WJul 19 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko341111123S. Osipov2688100
LMay 25 · 07:05O. Ponomarenko25411731S. Osipov3911611113
WMay 24 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko517111111113S. Osipov4311813652
WMay 20 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko4291111113S. Osipov29117921
WMay 9 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko3961111113S. Osipov31118481
WMay 3 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko4011711113S. Osipov25411461
WMay 2 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko4681314113S. Osipov4211111281
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 9 · 08:30O. Ponomarenko1.331181110113O. Efimov3.2541171292WOct 9 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko1.20881111113M. Mykhailenko4.3311118742WOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880LOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113WOct 8 · 09:35O. Miklukha1.613460O. Ponomarenko2.201111113LOct 8 · 08:35O. Ponomarenko1.138870O. Efimov5.501111113WOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113
S. Osipov10
WOct 9 · 07:30P. Ostrovskyi2.20107111152S. Osipov1.61121177113WOct 9 · 06:30S. Osipov1.171271113133O. Efimov4.501411711112WOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113WOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450LOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113LOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113LOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi1.36581111113S. Osipov3.0011119682WSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570LSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660
Upcoming Matches
O. Ponomarenko
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S. Osipov
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