TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Mykhailenko vs Dmytro Kunchurov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111210114119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kunchurov to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Dmytro Kunchurov at 62.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 11–10 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5762.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kunchurov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 824 vs Kunchurov 1008
Kunchurov
Wrong
both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 0% vs Kunchurov 60%
Kunchurov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 20% vs Kunchurov 50%
Kunchurov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -5 · Kunchurov +1
Mykhailenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kunchurov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhailenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 2.25 / Kunchurov 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kunchurov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266175
Mykhailenko2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 23 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Kunchurov1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 37 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 28 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailenko6wins
AwayKunchurov4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMykhailenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenko60%3 of 5
AwayKunchurov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko5Kunchurov5n = 10split evenly
S2Mykhailenko3Kunchurov7n = 10Kunchurov took 7 of 10
S3Mykhailenko6Kunchurov4n = 10Mykhailenko took 6 of 10
S4Mykhailenko6Kunchurov2n = 8Mykhailenko took 6 of 8
S5Mykhailenko3Kunchurov2n = 5Mykhailenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoKunchurovM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.8+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 115 vs 99 / 24326.1%40.7%30 / 115 vs 99 / 243Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KunchurovMykhailenko 2.25/Kunchurov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kunchurov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mykhailenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko4161113113D. Kunchurov381171191
WOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko531371111113D. Kunchurov4515115682
LSep 26 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko333515101D. Kunchurov47111113123
LSep 25 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko237880D. Kunchurov331111113
WSep 12 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko47117711113D. Kunchurov4561111892
LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko4811811992D. Kunchurov49911711113
WAug 29 · 09:00M. Mykhailenko351111133D. Kunchurov2375110
LAug 28 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko4411881162D. Kunchurov42711112113
WAug 23 · 12:30M. Mykhailenko539111111113D. Kunchurov4511139392
WAug 18 · 14:10M. Mykhailenko3611113113D. Kunchurov31481181
M. Mykhailenko10
LOct 9 · 09:00P. Ostrovskyi1.221111113M. Mykhailenko4.004950LOct 9 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko1.20881111113M. Mykhailenko4.3311118742LOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113LOct 8 · 12:05M. Mykhailenko2.2033100O. Efimov1.611111123LOct 8 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.2811119113M. Mykhailenko3.50681131LOct 8 · 08:05O. Miklukha1.14311411113M. Mykhailenko5.0011211642WOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191LOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.1012101251O. Efimov1.67141210113LOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881
D. Kunchurov10
WOct 9 · 06:00P. Ostrovskyi1.25871181D. Kunchurov3.7511115113LOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880WOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113LOct 8 · 10:35O. Efimov3.75671111113D. Kunchurov1.2511115992WOct 8 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.361151112122D. Kunchurov3.00511414143LOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191WOct 8 · 05:05O. Miklukha1.251181111102D. Kunchurov3.75611613123WOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 16:00D. Kunchurov2.75571281O. Miklukha1.40111110113
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