TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Illia Fokin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3116111161210711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:53 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeHryhoriy Oliynyk to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Hryhoriy Oliynyk at 58.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 0–2 Illia Fokin Hryhoriy Oliynyk has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5358.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oliynyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1133 vs Fokin 1039
Oliynyk
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 40% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 40% vs Fokin 70%
Fokin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk -1 · Fokin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Oliynyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 1.615 / Fokin 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Oliynyk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266063
Oliynyk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 36 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 28 of 40
Fokin2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOliynyk0wins
AwayFokin2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderFokin leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricOliynykFokinO − FBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.541.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 241 vs 157 / 30448.1%51.6%116 / 241 vs 157 / 304Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OliynykOliynyk 1.61/Fokin 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Oliynyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 18 · 04:55H. Oliynyk48111111962I. Fokin44541311113
LSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk31116951I. Fokin3851111113
H. Oliynyk10
LOct 9 · 13:25H. Oliynyk1.441191181P. Chyzh2.6391113113WOct 9 · 11:55H. Oliynyk1.5711115113V. Salivonchyk2.25691151WOct 5 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk2.1027120H. Oliynyk1.671111143LOct 5 · 09:25H. Oliynyk4.0011541192O. Melnik1.22911119113LOct 5 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.807850V. Vasyliev1.911111113LOct 5 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.733980O. Maslovskyi2.001111113WOct 5 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.831111113O. Maksymkiv1.838330LOct 2 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.38131311123H. Oliynyk1.5315113101LOct 2 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.912670M. Dunas1.801111113WOct 2 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.801311123V. Hel1.91118100
I. Fokin10
WOct 9 · 13:55I. Fokin2.7511511113V. Salivonchyk1.40811791LOct 9 · 12:55M. Treschetka1.40121147133I. Fokin2.751081111112WOct 2 · 11:25I. Fokin1.2011158113O. Bolnyh4.339131141WOct 2 · 09:25B. Pyrtyk2.7512119101I. Fokin1.4014911123LOct 2 · 07:25O. Martynenko2.20111110113I. Fokin1.61981231WOct 2 · 06:25I. Fokin1.281111133Y. Shcherbak3.5078110WOct 2 · 05:25P. Melnichuk3.40101151162I. Fokin1.30123115113LOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:55I. Fokin1.25311118113Y. Shcherbak3.7511991182WOct 1 · 15:55I. Fokin1.30141210113P. Melnichuk3.4012101261
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.