TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jan Zandecki vs Dawid Michna 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191168111715––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJan Zandecki to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 17-15
Point 88 set 4, 17-15 · our read held Jan Zandecki at 55.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 20–26 Dawid Michna Jan Zandecki has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Michna beat Zandecki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2255.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zandecki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Michna
Wrong
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 1942 vs Michna 1914
Zandecki
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki -2 · Michna -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Zandecki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 1.666 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Zandecki)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264886
Zandecki1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 116 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 83 of 108
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog54% won 120 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki3wins
AwayMichna7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki50%2 of 4
AwayMichna83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S2Zandecki6Michna4n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S3Zandecki3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Zandecki7Michna1n = 8Zandecki took 7 of 8
S5Zandecki1Michna6n = 7Michna took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiMichnaZ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.4+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 840 vs 499 / 92556.3%54%473 / 840 vs 499 / 925Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZandeckiZandecki 1.67/Michna 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Zandecki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zandecki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki4212591152D. Michna491011116113
LOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki4571191172D. Michna46118115113
WAug 15 · 04:10J. Zandecki50911811113D. Michna3711211672
LAug 14 · 12:55J. Zandecki4496111172D. Michna42111136113
WAug 14 · 05:40J. Zandecki371311133D. Michna30118110
LJul 14 · 09:20J. Zandecki4241181182D. Michna49119117113
WJul 14 · 06:55J. Zandecki4111127113D. Michna347101161
LJun 18 · 13:45J. Zandecki258890D. Michna331111113
LJun 18 · 03:00J. Zandecki46911124102D. Michna531191011123
LJun 17 · 14:35J. Zandecki4811991182D. Michna41211116113
J. Zandecki10
LOct 9 · 13:45P. David1.731011611113J. Zandecki2.0012911592LOct 9 · 12:55A. Witkowski1.611111113J. Zandecki2.209360WOct 9 · 12:05J. Zandecki1.67114411113D. Wederlich2.1081111282WOct 9 · 10:50J. Zandecki2.00411169113M. Jadczyk1.73118141182LOct 9 · 08:30P. David1.7311118113J. Zandecki2.00671181LOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.7312591152D. Michna2.001011116113WOct 9 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.7561180J. Zandecki1.851113113WOct 9 · 04:55A. Witkowski1.5784111182J. Zandecki2.25111198113LOct 9 · 03:25D. Wederlich2.10111310113J. Zandecki1.678111261LOct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.10116541P. David1.6771111113
D. Michna10
LOct 9 · 14:35D. Wederlich1.671111113D. Michna2.104990LOct 9 · 12:30P. David1.50891111113D. Michna2.5011117992WOct 9 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.83139891D. Michna1.83111111113WOct 9 · 10:00A. Witkowski1.671712741D. Michna2.10151411113WOct 9 · 08:05A. Witkowski1.505370D. Michna2.501111113WOct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.7312591152D. Michna2.001011116113WOct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73116591D. Michna2.0081111113LOct 9 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.911110811113D. Michna1.8061211852WOct 9 · 03:00P. David1.50123991D. Michna2.50101111113LOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.