TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Strejc vs Lukas Soucek 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121513117811116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:37 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Strejc to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Strejc above · Lukas Soucek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 104 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Filip Strejc at 54.5%
104 points played in total.
H2H Filip Strejc 22–17 Lukas Soucek Lukas Soucek has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3754.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strejc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Strejc
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strejc 1630 vs Soucek 1536
Strejc
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strejc 40% vs Soucek 20%
Strejc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strejc 50% vs Soucek 30%
Strejc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strejc -1 · Soucek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Strejc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soucek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrejc 1.727 / Soucek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Strejc)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264131
Strejc1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite40% won 18 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Soucek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrejc6wins
AwaySoucek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStrejc leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrejc100%3 of 3
AwaySoucek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strejc3Soucek7n = 10Soucek took 7 of 10
S2Strejc7Soucek3n = 10Strejc took 7 of 10
S3Strejc8Soucek2n = 10Strejc took 8 of 10
S4Strejc3Soucek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrejcSoucekStrejc − SoucekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.337.0+2.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrejcSoucekBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 469 vs 76 / 17144.8%44.4%210 / 469 vs 76 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrejcStrejc 1.73/Soucek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Strejc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 16:55F. Strejc551015118113L. Soucek49121371162
WSep 15 · 14:55F. Strejc4491311113L. Soucek381111881
LSep 13 · 08:25F. Strejc27671131L. Soucek4011117113
WAug 30 · 18:00F. Strejc351111133L. Soucek2375110
WAug 30 · 14:55F. Strejc331111113L. Soucek207490
WAug 27 · 18:10F. Strejc331111113L. Soucek175930
LAug 27 · 16:25F. Strejc54913151162L. Soucek581115138113
WApr 8 · 16:55F. Strejc50161211113L. Soucek451810981
LApr 2 · 14:55F. Strejc361111681L. Soucek4113611113
LMar 14 · 09:55F. Strejc2665150L. Soucek391111173
F. Strejc10
LOct 8 · 15:55F. Strejc2.10118111092V. Benak1.67411812113WOct 8 · 14:55F. Strejc2.251011511113T. Vorisek1.5712711772LOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113WOct 4 · 09:25F. Strejc2.007111510113V. Benak1.73116131292LOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy1.83112711123F. Strejc1.83911115102LOct 4 · 07:25M. Stusek1.83111111113F. Strejc1.83213861WOct 1 · 18:30F. Strejc1.8011911113O. Kadavy1.90911951WOct 1 · 17:25T. Flicek1.9194120F. Strejc1.801111143WOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071LOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792
L. Soucek10
LOct 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.4415211113L. Soucek2.631311751LOct 8 · 15:25L. Soucek2.6311591182V. Benak1.44911116113WSep 23 · 18:05D. Bochnak1.36118981L. Soucek3.0041111113LSep 23 · 17:25L. Soucek2.20411491M. Cerny1.6111811113LSep 23 · 15:55D. Vesecky1.7311112113L. Soucek2.00281181LSep 23 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.5351111113L. Soucek2.38118291LSep 15 · 18:25O. Kadavy1.531117113L. Soucek2.3841590WSep 15 · 16:55L. Soucek2.20119811123O. Kadavy1.61511119102WSep 15 · 15:55L. Soucek1.911114113T. Flicek1.8041280LSep 15 · 14:55L. Soucek2.201111881F. Strejc1.6191311113
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