TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vit Benak vs Tomas Vorisek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711811118115211
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Benak above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 85 set 5, 2-11 · our read held Tomas Vorisek at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 20–28 Tomas Vorisek Vit Benak has won 20 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-28 in 48
Vorisek
Correct
gap of 8 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1668 vs Vorisek 1714
Vorisek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 60% vs Vorisek 20%
Benak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 50% vs Vorisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +3 · Vorisek +1
Benak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vorisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.909 / Vorisek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorisek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263879
Benak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Vorisek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 98 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it86% 74 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak50%2 of 4
AwayVorisek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S2Benak6Vorisek4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S3Benak4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S4Benak4Vorisek5n = 9Vorisek took 5 of 9
S5Benak3Vorisek2n = 5Benak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakVorisekB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.8−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 154 vs 403 / 79455.2%50.8%85 / 154 vs 403 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekBenak 1.91/Vorisek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak208750T. Vorisek331111113
WAug 6 · 14:55V. Benak47119114123T. Vorisek50911911102
WAug 4 · 16:25V. Benak49811811113T. Vorisek4311411892
WJul 26 · 14:30V. Benak4391112113T. Vorisek381181091
LJul 26 · 10:55V. Benak34811961T. Vorisek3811511113
LJul 25 · 15:55V. Benak4371111862T. Vorisek43117311113
LJul 6 · 09:25V. Benak44114141232T. Vorisek579111610113
LJun 1 · 17:25V. Benak3811105121T. Vorisek4691211143
WApr 27 · 17:25V. Benak5411111110113T. Vorisek4213861232
WApr 20 · 15:55V. Benak4011117113T. Vorisek28741161
V. Benak10
WOct 8 · 18:08V. Benak1.5361211123L. Soucek2.3811106101WOct 8 · 15:55F. Strejc2.10118111092V. Benak1.67411812113WOct 8 · 15:25L. Soucek2.6311591182V. Benak1.44911116113WOct 4 · 10:44M. Stusek2.00511821V. Benak1.7311611113LOct 4 · 09:25F. Strejc2.007111510113V. Benak1.73116131292LOct 4 · 08:25V. Benak1.5781191192M. Stusek2.25119119113WOct 4 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.831171081V. Benak1.8371112113LOct 1 · 18:00T. Flicek1.95411912113V. Benak1.75119111082LOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113
T. Vorisek10
WOct 8 · 18:39F. Strejc2.10681151T. Vorisek1.6711115113WOct 8 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.4415211113L. Soucek2.631311751LOct 8 · 14:55F. Strejc2.251011511113T. Vorisek1.5712711772LOct 7 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.5711119113T. Vorisek2.25841181LOct 7 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.5011119113T. Vorisek2.50681181LOct 7 · 20:25T. Vorisek1.8371111862M. Stusek1.83115411113LOct 7 · 18:55F. Cernota1.571111113T. Vorisek2.259980WOct 1 · 21:55J. Zlamal1.6351060T. Vorisek2.151112113WOct 1 · 20:50F. Cernota1.67511561T. Vorisek2.1011911113LOct 1 · 19:50T. Vorisek2.20111011642J. Zlamal1.61512811113
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