TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Cernota vs Tomas Vorisek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119511611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Filip Cernota @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingFilip Cernota above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Filip Cernota at 57.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Filip Cernota 108–46 Tomas Vorisek Tomas Vorisek has won 46 of their 154 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:2457.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernota
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
108-46 in 154
Cernota
Wrong
gap of 62 in 154, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernota 1742 vs Vorisek 1730
Cernota
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernota 40% vs Vorisek 60%
Vorisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernota 70% vs Vorisek 50%
Cernota
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernota +1 · Vorisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Cernota) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernota 1.666 / Vorisek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Cernota)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226959
Cernota1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 16 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Vorisek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernota5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernota50%3 of 6
AwayVorisek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernota6Vorisek4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Cernota5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Cernota7Vorisek3n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Cernota6Vorisek2n = 8Cernota took 6 of 8
S5Cernota0Vorisek4n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernotaVorisekC − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.4+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernotaVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 166 vs 405 / 79457.8%51%96 / 166 vs 405 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaCernota 1.67/Vorisek 2.10
Miss
What we said
57.4%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Filip Cernota @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota4311129113T. Vorisek348101151
WSep 9 · 20:25F. Cernota351113113T. Vorisek2561180
WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota4071111113T. Vorisek27115741
LAug 24 · 21:25F. Cernota3921115111T. Vorisek50111313133
WAug 17 · 21:25F. Cernota3851111113T. Vorisek27116461
LAug 11 · 20:25F. Cernota44111041182T. Vorisek47812115113
LAug 7 · 18:20F. Cernota4711961472T. Vorisek516111112113
WMay 8 · 10:28F. Cernota331111113T. Vorisek216780
LMay 8 · 06:55F. Cernota481041112112T. Vorisek551211910133
LMay 5 · 20:25F. Cernota56119111692T. Vorisek57911818113
F. Cernota10
WOct 1 · 19:20M. Stusek1.9171211192F. Cernota1.801110118113LOct 1 · 18:50J. Zlamal1.671111123F. Cernota2.1078100LSep 18 · 22:00F. Cernota1.83511811162D. Jicha1.87117118183WSep 18 · 20:50F. Cernota1.611111911113F. Strejc2.2013711992LSep 18 · 19:20M. Stusek1.731111113F. Cernota2.009680WSep 18 · 18:50D. Jicha2.00611111072F. Cernota1.73117512113WSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota1.6711129113T. Vorisek2.108101151WSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113WSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172
T. Vorisek10
LOct 1 · 19:50T. Vorisek2.20111011642J. Zlamal1.61512811113WOct 1 · 18:20M. Stusek1.83119871T. Vorisek1.8351111113LSep 28 · 21:55J. Zlamal1.611111113T. Vorisek2.207760WSep 28 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.8311117113M. Stusek1.83581151WSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.61991111113F. Strejc2.2011116472LSep 28 · 18:20T. Vorisek2.201111411102J. Zlamal1.61913116123LSep 27 · 21:53J. Zlamal1.6112411113T. Vorisek2.201011861LSep 27 · 20:20J. Zlamal1.5311115113T. Vorisek2.38351181LSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota1.6711129113T. Vorisek2.108101151LSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113
Upcoming Matches
F. Cernota
Nothing scheduled
T. Vorisek
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