TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vit Benak vs Martin Stusek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119911119911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVit Benak to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVit Benak above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Vit Benak at 59.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vit Benak 16–9 Martin Stusek Martin Stusek has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2359.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Benak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Benak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benak 1658 vs Stusek 1676
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benak 40% vs Stusek 20%
Benak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benak 50% vs Stusek 30%
Benak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benak +1 · Stusek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Benak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenak 1.571 / Stusek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Benak)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13241133
Benak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite36% won 13 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it41% 9 of 22
Stusek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 72 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenak6wins
AwayStusek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenak83.3%5 of 6
AwayStusek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benak6Stusek4n = 10Benak took 6 of 10
S2Benak5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S3Benak4Stusek6n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Benak5Stusek1n = 6Benak took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenakStusekB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.7+3.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenakStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 149 vs 324 / 68955%47%82 / 149 vs 324 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BenakBenak 1.57/Stusek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Benak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 26 · 12:55V. Benak331111113M. Stusek208570
LJul 25 · 16:55V. Benak218760M. Stusek331111113
LJul 6 · 10:10V. Benak50911101192M. Stusek43116123113
LJul 6 · 07:55V. Benak31101470M. Stusek391216113
WApr 27 · 15:25V. Benak591071120113M. Stusek54121191842
WApr 20 · 18:29V. Benak331111113M. Stusek258980
WApr 20 · 16:55V. Benak4111118113M. Stusek28971111
LApr 15 · 15:55V. Benak401299101M. Stusek44101111123
WApr 11 · 08:55V. Benak4512139113M. Stusek4010111181
WApr 2 · 15:25V. Benak43111011113M. Stusek31812381
V. Benak10
LOct 4 · 09:25F. Strejc2.007111510113V. Benak1.73116131292WOct 4 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.831171081V. Benak1.8371112113LOct 1 · 18:00T. Flicek1.95411912113V. Benak1.75119111082LOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 15:55V. Benak1.61811871T. Flicek2.2011911113WOct 1 · 14:55V. Benak1.67441111113F. Strejc2.1011117792WSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113LSep 27 · 13:25F. Strejc2.10911116123V. Benak1.67119711102WSep 27 · 12:25V. Benak1.8011611143O. Kadavy1.919111121LSep 27 · 10:55M. Cerny2.00711119113V. Benak1.7311881172
M. Stusek10
WOct 4 · 08:55O. Kadavy1.913850M. Stusek1.801111113WOct 4 · 07:25M. Stusek1.83111111113F. Strejc1.83213861LOct 1 · 21:25F. Cernota1.831111153M. Stusek1.8381130LOct 1 · 20:20M. Stusek2.7561141152J. Zlamal1.40116118113LOct 1 · 19:20M. Stusek1.9171211192F. Cernota1.801110118113LOct 1 · 18:20M. Stusek1.83119871T. Vorisek1.8351111113WSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.8311117113M. Stusek1.83581151LSep 28 · 19:50J. Zlamal1.441212113M. Stusek2.63101060WSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980
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