TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs Martin Stusek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311811511––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 12–19 Martin Stusek Ondrej Kadavy has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Stusek
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1744 vs Stusek 1676
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 40% vs Stusek 20%
Kadavy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 60% vs Stusek 30%
Kadavy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +1 · Stusek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.909 / Stusek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stusek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240591
Kadavy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog48% won 36 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Stusek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 59 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy5wins
AwayStusek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy57.1%4 of 7
AwayStusek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy7Stusek3n = 10Kadavy took 7 of 10
S2Kadavy5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kadavy6Stusek4n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S4Kadavy2Stusek6n = 8Stusek took 6 of 8
S5Kadavy2Stusek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyStusekK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.737.3+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 337 vs 324 / 68957.9%47%195 / 337 vs 324 / 689Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StusekKadavy 1.91/Stusek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 21:58O. Kadavy41113115113M. Stusek3741171142
LSep 21 · 20:55O. Kadavy50117118132M. Stusek52711811153
WSep 15 · 20:55O. Kadavy331111113M. Stusek154470
LSep 11 · 20:55O. Kadavy4413116682M. Stusek471131111113
WAug 14 · 21:58O. Kadavy43114611113M. Stusek4261111862
LAug 14 · 20:55O. Kadavy32861171M. Stusek3711114113
WAug 8 · 19:55O. Kadavy351113113M. Stusek2271140
WAug 2 · 15:25O. Kadavy4181111113M. Stusek29115851
LJul 28 · 21:55O. Kadavy37715691M. Stusek46111311113
LJul 28 · 20:55O. Kadavy411189131M. Stusek4691111153
O. Kadavy10
WOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy1.83112711123F. Strejc1.83911115102LOct 4 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.831171081V. Benak1.8371112113LOct 1 · 18:30F. Strejc1.8011911113O. Kadavy1.90911951WOct 1 · 16:55V. Benak1.73711581O. Kadavy2.0011511113LOct 1 · 16:25F. Strejc2.0081112113O. Kadavy1.731161071WOct 1 · 15:25O. Kadavy1.571111113T. Flicek2.255870WSep 28 · 14:25O. Kadavy1.80111135113D. Bochnak1.9176111122WSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 12:25O. Kadavy1.57111110113P. Vanek2.25621261LSep 28 · 10:55D. Bochnak2.10116811113O. Kadavy1.6741111952
M. Stusek10
WOct 4 · 08:25V. Benak1.5781191192M. Stusek2.25119119113WOct 4 · 07:25M. Stusek1.83111111113F. Strejc1.83213861LOct 1 · 21:25F. Cernota1.831111153M. Stusek1.8381130LOct 1 · 20:20M. Stusek2.7561141152J. Zlamal1.40116118113LOct 1 · 19:20M. Stusek1.9171211192F. Cernota1.801110118113LOct 1 · 18:20M. Stusek1.83119871T. Vorisek1.8351111113WSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.8311117113M. Stusek1.83581151LSep 28 · 19:50J. Zlamal1.441212113M. Stusek2.63101060WSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980
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