TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Rodin vs Avraham Nazrin 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAvraham Nazrin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksii Rodin above · Avraham Nazrin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Avraham Nazrin at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Rodin 1–1 Avraham Nazrin Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 17:2854.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nazrin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rodin 1678 vs Nazrin 1672
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rodin 40% vs Nazrin 20%
Rodin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rodin 50% vs Nazrin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rodin -3 · Nazrin -2
Rodin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nazrin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazrin form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRodin 2.10 / Nazrin 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rodin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260929
Rodin2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 44 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Nazrin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 7 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRodin1wins
AwayNazrin1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRodinNazrinR − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.535.5−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRodinNazrinBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 378 vs 24 / 4657.4%52.2%217 / 378 vs 24 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RodinRodin 2.10/Nazrin 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nazrin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 25 · 08:05O. Rodin25611531A. Nazrin3911611113
WSep 24 · 12:05O. Rodin4211119113A. Nazrin32771171
O. Rodin10
LOct 8 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak2.0041111113O. Rodin1.73119961LOct 8 · 13:35V. Slozka1.83611613113O. Rodin1.83115111152LOct 8 · 12:35M. Loboda2.001191111113O. Rodin1.7351113172WOct 8 · 03:00O. Rodin1.8391111113V. Slozka1.83115981WOct 8 · 01:00M. Loboda2.006750O. Rodin1.731111113WOct 7 · 23:00V. Kaidakov1.731091161O. Rodin2.0012118113LOct 7 · 22:00O. Rodin1.7312551192Y. Vorsuliak2.001011117113WOct 7 · 21:00R. Konkulovskyi1.509980O. Rodin2.501111113WOct 6 · 03:15O. Rodin1.8014101111113Y. Vorsuliak1.9116126742LOct 6 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi1.4411911143O. Rodin2.639117121
A. Nazrin10
WOct 8 · 18:35Y. Vorsuliak2.201011101162A. Nazrin1.61125126113LOct 8 · 16:05M. Loboda2.101111113A. Nazrin1.677670LOct 8 · 14:05V. Kaidakov2.1011114113A. Nazrin1.67461161WOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka1.9196110A. Nazrin1.801111133LOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680WOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 07:05M. Loboda1.80711111192A. Nazrin1.91111366113WOct 2 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.807490LOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113
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