TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksii Rodin vs Yaroslav Vorsuliak 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14161012116117114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:02 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Rodin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Rodin above · Yaroslav Vorsuliak below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 102 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Oleksii Rodin at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Rodin 10–12 Yaroslav Vorsuliak Oleksii Rodin has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rodin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Vorsuliak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rodin 1664 vs Vorsuliak 1621
Rodin
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rodin 40% vs Vorsuliak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rodin 30% vs Vorsuliak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rodin -1 · Vorsuliak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rodin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRodin 1.80 / Vorsuliak 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rodin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13244584
Rodin1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 150 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it95% 72 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it77% 101 of 131
Vorsuliak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 76 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRodin5wins
AwayVorsuliak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRodin57.1%4 of 7
AwayVorsuliak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rodin7Vorsuliak3n = 10Rodin took 7 of 10
S2Rodin6Vorsuliak4n = 10Rodin took 6 of 10
S3Rodin4Vorsuliak5n = 9Vorsuliak took 5 of 9
S4Rodin5Vorsuliak4n = 9Rodin took 5 of 9
S5Rodin1Vorsuliak4n = 5Vorsuliak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRodinVorsuliakR − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.741.0+2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRodinVorsuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 369 vs 435 / 86957.5%50.1%212 / 369 vs 435 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RodinRodin 1.80/Vorsuliak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rodin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rodin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 01:45O. Rodin4811169123Y. Vorsuliak4161411101
LSep 20 · 23:00O. Rodin43121151232Y. Vorsuliak521061114113
LSep 17 · 19:05O. Rodin48118118102Y. Vorsuliak43211711123
WSep 16 · 23:00O. Rodin4211911113Y. Vorsuliak25311831
LSep 14 · 10:05O. Rodin3881111172Y. Vorsuliak50111189113
WSep 7 · 08:35O. Rodin3911114133Y. Vorsuliak357611111
LSep 3 · 14:05O. Rodin4511119862Y. Vorsuliak43371111113
WAug 30 · 12:05O. Rodin4111117123Y. Vorsuliak334811101
WAug 28 · 10:05O. Rodin491011116113Y. Vorsuliak4712871192
O. Rodin10
LOct 6 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi1.4411911143O. Rodin2.639117121WOct 5 · 23:15M. Loboda1.678640O. Rodin2.101111113LOct 5 · 22:15O. Rodin1.83811161V. Slozka1.8311911113LOct 5 · 21:13V. Kaidakov2.101111153O. Rodin1.6789130WOct 5 · 02:45V. Kaidakov1.835990O. Rodin1.831111113LOct 5 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.801111113O. Rodin1.918980LOct 5 · 00:15R. Konkulovskyi1.5311711113O. Rodin2.38911831LOct 4 · 22:15V. Slozka2.1081711113O. Rodin1.671115991LOct 4 · 20:15M. Loboda1.831111113O. Rodin1.834720WOct 4 · 03:15I. Sukovatyi1.40119791O. Rodin2.7581111113
Y. Vorsuliak10
LOct 6 · 01:45Y. Vorsuliak2.635770V. Slozka1.441111113WOct 5 · 23:45V. Kaidakov1.831091191Y. Vorsuliak1.8312119113LOct 5 · 21:45M. Loboda1.501111113Y. Vorsuliak2.508990LOct 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi1.6771112113Y. Vorsuliak2.101161081WOct 1 · 18:05Y. Vorsuliak2.631111113M. Loboda1.446530LOct 1 · 16:35Y. Vorsuliak1.73811761A. Nazrin2.0011811113WOct 1 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.5711311143D. Shchegelskyi2.258118121LOct 1 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak2.1011970V. Krokhmal1.671311113LOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:00Y. Vorsuliak2.6317411113M. Loboda1.441511651
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