TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Avraham Nazrin 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAvraham Nazrin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Avraham Nazrin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Avraham Nazrin at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 4–4 Avraham Nazrin Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 15:4954.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nazrin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1713 vs Nazrin 1686
Loboda
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 40% vs Nazrin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 50% vs Nazrin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda +2 · Nazrin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nazrin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazrin form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 2.10 / Nazrin 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Loboda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261358
Loboda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 77 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Nazrin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 7 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLoboda4wins
AwayNazrin4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda60%3 of 5
AwayNazrin66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda5Nazrin3n = 8Loboda took 5 of 8
S2Loboda2Nazrin6n = 8Nazrin took 6 of 8
S3Loboda5Nazrin3n = 8Loboda took 5 of 8
S4Loboda4Nazrin1n = 5Loboda took 4 of 5
S5Loboda1Nazrin2n = 3Nazrin took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricLobodaNazrinL − NBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match37.236.4+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaNazrinBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 959 vs 24 / 4551.8%53.3%497 / 959 vs 24 / 45Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobodaLoboda 2.10/Nazrin 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nazrin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Loboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 2 · 07:05M. Loboda49711111192A. Nazrin47111366113
WOct 1 · 14:35M. Loboda48591211113A. Nazrin49111110892
WSep 25 · 07:05M. Loboda4011711113A. Nazrin32311991
LSep 24 · 18:05M. Loboda34118871A. Nazrin4291111113
LAug 7 · 09:35M. Loboda3911871122A. Nazrin45511117113
WAug 6 · 18:05M. Loboda331111113A. Nazrin197750
LJul 31 · 08:35M. Loboda2271140A. Nazrin351113113
WJul 30 · 14:35M. Loboda331111113A. Nazrin228950
M. Loboda10
WOct 8 · 14:35M. Loboda1.50111210113Y. Vorsuliak2.508101241WOct 8 · 12:35M. Loboda2.001191111113O. Rodin1.7351113172LOct 8 · 02:00V. Kaidakov1.731181011113M. Loboda2.0081112792LOct 8 · 01:00M. Loboda2.006750O. Rodin1.731111113LOct 8 · 00:00M. Loboda1.44116881Y. Vorsuliak2.6391111113WOct 7 · 22:30M. Loboda2.0011711113R. Konkulovskyi1.73611671WOct 7 · 20:30M. Loboda1.73111288113V. Slozka2.00810111172LOct 6 · 02:15M. Loboda2.0011711892R. Konkulovskyi1.73711211113WOct 6 · 00:45M. Loboda2.00118914113V. Kaidakov1.73511111262LOct 5 · 23:15M. Loboda1.678640O. Rodin2.101111113
A. Nazrin10
LOct 8 · 14:05V. Kaidakov2.1011114113A. Nazrin1.67461161WOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka1.9196110A. Nazrin1.801111133LOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680WOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 07:05M. Loboda1.80711111192A. Nazrin1.91111366113WOct 2 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.807490LOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113WOct 1 · 16:35Y. Vorsuliak1.73811761A. Nazrin2.0011811113LOct 1 · 15:35A. Nazrin1.9111118492V. Krokhmal1.80761111113
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