TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Avraham Nazrin vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118411118511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAvraham Nazrin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAvraham Nazrin above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Avraham Nazrin at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Avraham Nazrin 1–1 Volodymyr Kaidakov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nazrin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nazrin 1679 vs Kaidakov 1669
Nazrin
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazrin 60% vs Kaidakov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazrin 50% vs Kaidakov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazrin +1 · Kaidakov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nazrin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazrin 1.80 / Kaidakov 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nazrin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223575
Nazrin1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 6 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Kaidakov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 12 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNazrin1wins
AwayKaidakov1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNazrinKaidakovN − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.044.5−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazrinKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 37 vs 277 / 52154.1%53.2%20 / 37 vs 277 / 521Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NazrinNazrin 1.80/Kaidakov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nazrin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 7 · 06:35A. Nazrin3951131192V. Kaidakov50119118113
WAug 6 · 15:05A. Nazrin4315511123V. Kaidakov3913115101
A. Nazrin10
WOct 1 · 16:35Y. Vorsuliak1.73811761A. Nazrin2.0011811113LOct 1 · 15:35A. Nazrin1.9111118492V. Krokhmal1.80761111113LOct 1 · 14:35M. Loboda1.73591211113A. Nazrin2.00111110892WOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172WSep 25 · 11:05A. Nazrin2.20811116113V. Krokhmal1.6111851172LSep 25 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113A. Nazrin2.638740WSep 25 · 08:05A. Nazrin2.3811611113O. Rodin1.53611531LSep 25 · 07:05M. Loboda1.8311711113A. Nazrin1.83311991LSep 25 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.5011911362V. Slozka2.50511511113WSep 24 · 18:05A. Nazrin2.1091111113M. Loboda1.67118871
V. Kaidakov10
WOct 1 · 17:35V. Krokhmal2.104111171V. Kaidakov1.6711135113LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113LOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121WOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LAug 14 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.381011167193V. Kaidakov1.531281411172
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