TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Avraham Nazrin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119111210118119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMyroslav Loboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Avraham Nazrin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Myroslav Loboda at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 3–3 Avraham Nazrin Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Loboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1682 vs Nazrin 1692
Nazrin
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 40% vs Nazrin 60%
Nazrin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 40% vs Nazrin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda -2 · Nazrin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Loboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Loboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 1.727 / Nazrin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Loboda)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223756
Loboda1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 162 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it93% 100 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it76% 136 of 180
Nazrin2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog59% won 10 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLoboda3wins
AwayNazrin3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda60%3 of 5
AwayNazrinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda5Nazrin1n = 6Loboda took 5 of 6
S2Loboda2Nazrin4n = 6Nazrin took 4 of 6
S3Loboda3Nazrin3n = 6split evenly
S4Loboda2Nazrin1n = 3Loboda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricLobodaNazrinL − NBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match33.532.5+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaNazrinBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 958 vs 19 / 3451.5%55.9%493 / 958 vs 19 / 34Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobodaLoboda 1.73/Nazrin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Loboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Loboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 25 · 07:05M. Loboda4011711113A. Nazrin32311991
LSep 24 · 18:05M. Loboda34118871A. Nazrin4291111113
LAug 7 · 09:35M. Loboda3911871122A. Nazrin45511117113
WAug 6 · 18:05M. Loboda331111113A. Nazrin197750
LJul 31 · 08:35M. Loboda2271140A. Nazrin351113113
WJul 30 · 14:35M. Loboda331111113A. Nazrin228950
M. Loboda10
LOct 1 · 12:35M. Loboda1.831110861V. Krokhmal1.8371211113LOct 1 · 02:00Y. Vorsuliak2.6317411113M. Loboda1.441511651WOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102LOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:30M. Loboda2.3871311113R. Konkulovskyi1.531111451LSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113LSep 29 · 02:15I. Hrekh2.2011411113M. Loboda1.61411481WSep 29 · 01:15M. Loboda2.0011811113O. Rodin1.73911871WSep 29 · 00:15M. Loboda1.8381111153V. Krokhmal1.831176131LSep 28 · 22:45M. Loboda2.3891211582R. Konkulovskyi1.531110611113
A. Nazrin10
WOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172WSep 25 · 11:05A. Nazrin2.20811116113V. Krokhmal1.6111851172LSep 25 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113A. Nazrin2.638740WSep 25 · 08:05A. Nazrin2.3811611113O. Rodin1.53611531LSep 25 · 07:05M. Loboda1.8311711113A. Nazrin1.83311991LSep 25 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.5011911362V. Slozka2.50511511113WSep 24 · 18:05A. Nazrin2.1091111113M. Loboda1.67118871LSep 24 · 16:35A. Nazrin2.388880I. Hrekh1.531111113LSep 24 · 15:05A. Nazrin2.201110881V. Krokhmal1.6191211113WSep 24 · 13:35A. Nazrin1.5741111113V. Slozka2.25114381
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