TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Avraham Nazrin vs Vitalii Krokhmal 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117116811411911
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Krokhmal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAvraham Nazrin above · Vitalii Krokhmal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Vitalii Krokhmal at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Avraham Nazrin 2–2 Vitalii Krokhmal Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krokhmal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazrin 1679 vs Krokhmal 1697
Krokhmal
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazrin 60% vs Krokhmal 20%
Nazrin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazrin 40% vs Krokhmal 20%
Nazrin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazrin -1 · Krokhmal -3
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krokhmal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krokhmal form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazrin 1.909 / Krokhmal 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krokhmal)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223873
Nazrin1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog59% won 10 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back44% 4 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Krokhmal1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 146 days ago (May 08) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 61 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNazrin2wins
AwayKrokhmal2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazrinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKrokhmal33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazrin1Krokhmal3n = 4Krokhmal took 3 of 4
S2Nazrin2Krokhmal2n = 4split evenly
S3Nazrin1Krokhmal3n = 4Krokhmal took 3 of 4
S4Nazrin1Krokhmal2n = 3Krokhmal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricNazrinKrokhmalN − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.841.0−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazrinKrokhmalBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 35 vs 193 / 41454.3%46.6%19 / 35 vs 193 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrokhmalNazrin 1.91/Krokhmal 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krokhmal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 25 · 11:05A. Nazrin47811116113V. Krokhmal4211851172
LSep 24 · 15:05A. Nazrin371110881V. Krokhmal4391211113
WJul 31 · 06:35A. Nazrin50811911113V. Krokhmal4211511782
LJul 30 · 18:35A. Nazrin25311110V. Krokhmal371113133
A. Nazrin10
LOct 1 · 14:35M. Loboda1.73591211113A. Nazrin2.00111110892WOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172WSep 25 · 11:05A. Nazrin2.20811116113V. Krokhmal1.6111851172LSep 25 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113A. Nazrin2.638740WSep 25 · 08:05A. Nazrin2.3811611113O. Rodin1.53611531LSep 25 · 07:05M. Loboda1.8311711113A. Nazrin1.83311991LSep 25 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.5011911362V. Slozka2.50511511113WSep 24 · 18:05A. Nazrin2.1091111113M. Loboda1.67118871LSep 24 · 16:35A. Nazrin2.388880I. Hrekh1.531111113LSep 24 · 15:05A. Nazrin2.201110881V. Krokhmal1.6191211113
V. Krokhmal10
WOct 1 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak2.1011970V. Krokhmal1.671311113WOct 1 · 12:35M. Loboda1.831110861V. Krokhmal1.8371211113WOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113WOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121LSep 30 · 23:30R. Konkulovskyi2.2571111113V. Krokhmal1.57115981LSep 30 · 21:30Y. Vorsuliak2.10144118113V. Krokhmal1.67121151192WSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113WSep 29 · 02:45R. Konkulovskyi2.201112551V. Krokhmal1.61131011113LSep 25 · 11:05A. Nazrin2.20811116113V. Krokhmal1.6111851172WSep 24 · 15:05A. Nazrin2.201110881V. Krokhmal1.6191211113
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