TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Krokhmal vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111113115711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 57.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Krokhmal 5–13 Volodymyr Kaidakov Vitalii Krokhmal has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2957.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kaidakov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Kaidakov
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krokhmal 1707 vs Kaidakov 1656
Krokhmal
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krokhmal 20% vs Kaidakov 40%
Kaidakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krokhmal 20% vs Kaidakov 40%
Kaidakov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krokhmal -3 · Kaidakov -2
Krokhmal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrokhmal 2.10 / Kaidakov 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kaidakov)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223757
Krokhmal2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 146 days ago (May 08) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 99 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Kaidakov1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 59 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrokhmal4wins
AwayKaidakov6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKaidakov leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokhmal50%2 of 4
AwayKaidakov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krokhmal4Kaidakov6n = 10Kaidakov took 6 of 10
S2Krokhmal5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S3Krokhmal3Kaidakov7n = 10Kaidakov took 7 of 10
S4Krokhmal5Kaidakov4n = 9Krokhmal took 5 of 9
S5Krokhmal3Kaidakov3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrokhmalKaidakovKrokhmal − KaidakovBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.945.0−5.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokhmalKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 415 vs 276 / 52046.8%53.1%194 / 415 vs 276 / 520Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovKrokhmal 2.10/Kaidakov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal3911134113V. Kaidakov328111121
LJun 19 · 06:05V. Krokhmal177190V. Kaidakov331111113
LJun 18 · 17:35V. Krokhmal30561181V. Kaidakov4211119113
WJun 17 · 23:30V. Krokhmal521151211133V. Kaidakov541311109112
LJun 5 · 11:05V. Krokhmal4441211892V. Kaidakov501110711113
LJun 4 · 13:05V. Krokhmal28512651V. Kaidakov43111011113
LJun 4 · 02:30V. Krokhmal5211991672V. Kaidakov547111114113
LMay 29 · 11:05V. Krokhmal3911941142V. Kaidakov47611118113
WMay 28 · 15:35V. Krokhmal50611911133V. Kaidakov49117119112
WMay 27 · 23:30V. Krokhmal48111277113V. Kaidakov46810111162
V. Krokhmal10
WOct 1 · 15:35A. Nazrin1.9111118492V. Krokhmal1.80761111113WOct 1 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak2.1011970V. Krokhmal1.671311113WOct 1 · 12:35M. Loboda1.831110861V. Krokhmal1.8371211113WOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113WOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121LSep 30 · 23:30R. Konkulovskyi2.2571111113V. Krokhmal1.57115981LSep 30 · 21:30Y. Vorsuliak2.10144118113V. Krokhmal1.67121151192WSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113WSep 29 · 02:45R. Konkulovskyi2.201112551V. Krokhmal1.61131011113WSep 29 · 01:45V. Slozka1.80111011782V. Krokhmal1.91312811113
V. Kaidakov10
LOct 1 · 16:05M. Loboda2.001114113V. Kaidakov1.7361280LOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113LOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121WOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LAug 14 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.381011167193V. Kaidakov1.531281411172LAug 14 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.671110941O. Pohonov2.1091211113
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