TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Vorsuliak vs Avraham Nazrin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121151012116611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeAvraham Nazrin to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Avraham Nazrin below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Avraham Nazrin at 57.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 2–2 Avraham Nazrin Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2457.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nazrin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1643 vs Nazrin 1657
Nazrin
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 60% vs Nazrin 20%
Vorsuliak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 50% vs Nazrin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak +2 · Nazrin -3
Nazrin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Nazrin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazrin form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 2.20 / Nazrin 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Nazrin)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261272
Vorsuliak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 75 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 67
Nazrin1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 7 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVorsuliak2wins
AwayNazrin2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak2Nazrin2n = 4split evenly
S2Vorsuliak3Nazrin1n = 4Vorsuliak took 3 of 4
S3Vorsuliak1Nazrin3n = 4Nazrin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricVorsuliakNazrinV − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.534.5−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakNazrinBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 874 vs 24 / 4750.1%51.1%438 / 874 vs 24 / 47Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NazrinVorsuliak 2.20/Nazrin 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Nazrin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nazrin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 1 · 16:35Y. Vorsuliak32811761A. Nazrin4111811113
WJul 31 · 10:05Y. Vorsuliak341112113A. Nazrin2681080
LJul 30 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak227870A. Nazrin331111113
WJul 20 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak46111210133A. Nazrin3851012111
Y. Vorsuliak10
WOct 8 · 16:35V. Slozka1.40191183102Y. Vorsuliak2.751781111123WOct 8 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak2.0041111113O. Rodin1.73119961LOct 8 · 14:35M. Loboda1.50111210113Y. Vorsuliak2.508101241LOct 8 · 13:05Y. Vorsuliak1.911258111V. Kaidakov1.80101111133WOct 8 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.538570Y. Vorsuliak2.381111113LOct 8 · 01:30V. Slozka1.4061111113Y. Vorsuliak2.75118781WOct 8 · 00:00M. Loboda1.44116881Y. Vorsuliak2.6391111113WOct 7 · 22:00O. Rodin1.7312551192Y. Vorsuliak2.001011117113LOct 7 · 20:00V. Kaidakov1.731111113Y. Vorsuliak2.008390LOct 6 · 03:15O. Rodin1.8014101111113Y. Vorsuliak1.9116126742
A. Nazrin10
LOct 8 · 17:35O. Rodin2.101111113A. Nazrin1.677570LOct 8 · 16:05M. Loboda2.101111113A. Nazrin1.677670LOct 8 · 14:05V. Kaidakov2.1011114113A. Nazrin1.67461161WOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka1.9196110A. Nazrin1.801111133LOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680WOct 2 · 08:05A. Nazrin1.831111133V. Kaidakov1.8358110WOct 2 · 07:05M. Loboda1.80711111192A. Nazrin1.91111366113WOct 2 · 05:35A. Nazrin1.911111113V. Krokhmal1.807490LOct 1 · 18:35A. Nazrin1.8091141152V. Kaidakov1.91118118113
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