TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Jakub Folwarski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81161113111171315
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:43 and never touched: 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 106 set 5, 13-15 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 71.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 13–21 Jakub Folwarski Artur Grela has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Grela beat Folwarski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4371.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 3.7pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-21 in 34
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1939 vs Folwarski 2068
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Folwarski 60%
Folwarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 50% vs Folwarski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Folwarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 3.25 / Folwarski 1.333
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Folwarski)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259469
Grela3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back32% 41 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Folwarski1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite77% won 166 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayFolwarski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela40%2 of 5
AwayFolwarski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Folwarski5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Grela7Folwarski3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S4Grela1Folwarski6n = 7Folwarski took 6 of 7
S5Grela2Folwarski3n = 5Folwarski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaFolwarskiG − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.738.8−0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime644 / 1242 vs 275 / 36451.9%75.6%644 / 1242 vs 275 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiGrela 3.25/Folwarski 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 08:30A. Grela351113113J. Folwarski2331190
WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela3621211113J. Folwarski321110741
LJul 15 · 09:20A. Grela4811811992J. Folwarski40511211113
LJul 11 · 10:00A. Grela237970J. Folwarski331111113
LJul 11 · 05:40A. Grela2151060J. Folwarski341112113
WJul 4 · 10:00A. Grela50511119143J. Folwarski45114711122
LJul 4 · 05:40A. Grela50117111562J. Folwarski53711717113
LJun 4 · 04:00A. Grela31118481J. Folwarski4071111113
LMay 30 · 13:40A. Grela4391111662J. Folwarski47119511113
WMay 30 · 04:00A. Grela50118117133J. Folwarski41411411112
A. Grela10
WOct 8 · 12:30A. Grela1.83111211113D. Michna1.83914981LOct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.00119651D. Wederlich1.7371111113LOct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki2.00111155113A. Grela1.7364111152WOct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.50131252P. David1.50111071WOct 8 · 08:30A. Grela3.001113113J. Folwarski1.3631190LOct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.91101111462M. Jadczyk1.80128811113LOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113WOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741LOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741
J. Folwarski10
WOct 8 · 12:55J. Zandecki3.75741131J. Folwarski1.2511116113LOct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44111031192P. David2.63712114113WOct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.3681112113D. Wederlich3.001181081WOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113LOct 8 · 08:30A. Grela3.001113113J. Folwarski1.3631190LOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113WOct 8 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.634930J. Folwarski1.441111113WOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113LOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741
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