TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Khyzhnyak vs Serhii Honcharenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197118111210112
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched: 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Khyzhnyak above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 92 set 5, 11-2 · our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 78.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Khyzhnyak 3–22 Serhii Honcharenko Volodymyr Khyzhnyak has won 3 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2878.5%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.5pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Honcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-22 in 25
Honcharenko
Wrong
gap of 19 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khyzhnyak 1192 vs Honcharenko 1166
Khyzhnyak
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khyzhnyak 60% vs Honcharenko 40%
Khyzhnyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khyzhnyak 80% vs Honcharenko 40%
Khyzhnyak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khyzhnyak +1 · Honcharenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Honcharenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhyzhnyak 3.75 / Honcharenko 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 79%
Edge (Honcharenko)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255601
Khyzhnyak3.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 27 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Honcharenko1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 112 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it87% 90 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhyzhnyak2wins
AwayHoncharenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhyzhnyak66.7%2 of 3
AwayHoncharenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khyzhnyak3Honcharenko7n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Khyzhnyak1Honcharenko9n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S3Khyzhnyak4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Khyzhnyak1Honcharenko5n = 6Honcharenko took 5 of 6
S5Khyzhnyak2Honcharenko1n = 3Khyzhnyak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhyzhnyakHoncharenkoK − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.239.6−7.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhyzhnyakHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 187 vs 428 / 84737.4%50.5%70 / 187 vs 428 / 847Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoKhyzhnyak 3.75/Honcharenko 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.5%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khyzhnyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak49117812113S. Honcharenko43911111022
LOct 1 · 05:30V. Khyzhnyak31851261S. Honcharenko43111110113
WSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak46115116133S. Honcharenko46811511112
LSep 28 · 09:30V. Khyzhnyak207490S. Honcharenko331111113
LSep 25 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak369611101S. Honcharenko3811114123
LSep 22 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak29411681S. Honcharenko3911611113
LSep 4 · 07:30V. Khyzhnyak217680S. Honcharenko331111113
LAug 14 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak48148111052S. Honcharenko551211912113
LJul 21 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak249690S. Honcharenko331111113
LJun 9 · 05:30V. Khyzhnyak187920S. Honcharenko331111113
V. Khyzhnyak10
WOct 7 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.611111113Y. Urezchenko2.205590LOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 4 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.201111113S. Zherykhin1.614540WOct 4 · 08:00V. Yarovyi2.2511119852V. Khyzhnyak1.57571111113LOct 4 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov1.361111109113V. Khyzhnyak3.0056121122WOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113WOct 1 · 09:58M. Zavoloka1.918790V. Khyzhnyak1.801111113WOct 1 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak1.73111187113M. Zavoloka2.0075111192WOct 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.0011211282V. Khyzhnyak1.73711811113WOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1.53651151V. Khyzhnyak2.3811116113
S. Honcharenko10
LOct 7 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.57179121052Y. Urezchenko2.2515111012113LOct 7 · 05:30S. Honcharenko2.006570V. Kurliuk1.731111113LOct 6 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.00111171162M. Zavoloka1.73513118113WOct 6 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.671112101172S. Honcharenko2.10814128113WOct 6 · 07:00V. Matviichuk2.387770S. Honcharenko1.531111113LOct 6 · 05:30E. Bakin1.80147911113S. Honcharenko1.91121111622LOct 5 · 10:34V. Hyriavyi3.40114115113S. Honcharenko1.3081191182WOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791WOct 5 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.361191110113A. Lysyi3.0061121272LOct 5 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25311871V. Hyriavyi3.7511211113
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