TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Zavoloka vs Serhii Honcharenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11812141012118711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMykola Zavoloka to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Zavoloka above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 104 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Mykola Zavoloka at 56.2%
104 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Zavoloka 10–10 Serhii Honcharenko Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5856.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zavoloka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zavoloka 1224 vs Honcharenko 1197
Zavoloka
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zavoloka 40% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zavoloka 50% vs Honcharenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zavoloka +1 · Honcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Zavoloka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZavoloka 1.666 / Honcharenko 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Zavoloka)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250903
Zavoloka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 33 of 41
Honcharenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 73 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZavoloka5wins
AwayHoncharenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZavoloka100%4 of 4
AwayHoncharenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zavoloka4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Zavoloka5Honcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Zavoloka6Honcharenko4n = 10Zavoloka took 6 of 10
S4Zavoloka2Honcharenko1n = 3Zavoloka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZavolokaHoncharenkoZ − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.633.0+0.6per matchSweeps43+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZavolokaHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 108 vs 432 / 84854.6%50.9%59 / 108 vs 432 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZavolokaZavoloka 1.67/Honcharenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Zavoloka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:00M. Zavoloka49971111113S. Honcharenko3911118632
WOct 1 · 07:30M. Zavoloka351111133S. Honcharenko2559110
LSep 24 · 07:30M. Zavoloka2512670S. Honcharenko361411113
LSep 22 · 09:30M. Zavoloka2367100S. Honcharenko341111123
WSep 17 · 06:00M. Zavoloka331111113S. Honcharenko257990
LSep 16 · 09:59M. Zavoloka339113101S. Honcharenko4211811123
LSep 16 · 07:30M. Zavoloka45610121162S. Honcharenko481112104113
WSep 15 · 09:58M. Zavoloka351111133S. Honcharenko1852110
WSep 15 · 06:30M. Zavoloka341211113S. Honcharenko2710980
LSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2441280S. Honcharenko361114113
M. Zavoloka10
WOct 6 · 09:30V. Matviichuk2.75119441M. Zavoloka1.4051111113WOct 6 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.5011611113E. Bakin2.50711821LOct 6 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.501381161I. Sushko1.50111113113LOct 5 · 10:03M. Zavoloka1.331171111112A. Lysyi3.25811135133LOct 5 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi6.5011817113M. Zavoloka1.106111541WOct 5 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.638890M. Zavoloka1.441111113WOct 5 · 06:00S. Honcharenko2.0011118632M. Zavoloka1.73971111113WOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113LOct 2 · 09:58O. Badanin3.0041211113M. Zavoloka1.361110591LOct 2 · 09:30V. Saakian1.7311117113M. Zavoloka2.00751191
S. Honcharenko10
WOct 6 · 07:00V. Matviichuk2.387770S. Honcharenko1.531111113LOct 6 · 05:30E. Bakin1.80147911113S. Honcharenko1.91121111622LOct 5 · 10:34V. Hyriavyi3.40114115113S. Honcharenko1.3081191182WOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791WOct 5 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.361191110113A. Lysyi3.0061121272LOct 5 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25311871V. Hyriavyi3.7511211113LOct 5 · 06:00S. Honcharenko2.0011118632M. Zavoloka1.73971111113LOct 2 · 16:00A. Danylov3.25211113113S. Honcharenko1.3311891182LOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161WOct 2 · 13:00S. Zherykhin4.5077100S. Honcharenko1.171111123
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