TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Serhii Rak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131181210––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Vasily Verbyany at 68.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 1–0 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2968.8%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 4.6pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1938 vs Rak 1920
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 20% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -1 · Rak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Verbyany) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.363 / Rak 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Verbyany)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250757
Verbyany1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Rak3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVerbyany1wins
AwayRak0wins
Verbyany leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVerbyanyRakV − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.021.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyRakBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 826 vs 554 / 99142%55.9%347 / 826 vs 554 / 991Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.36/Rak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany341111123S. Rak2138100
V. Verbyany10
LOct 6 · 08:35V. Verbyany1.809670D. Zeniuk1.911111113WOct 6 · 07:05V. Verbyany1.7311115113B. Kohut2.00591171LOct 6 · 05:05V. Verbyany2.0011591182A. Molochko1.73911119113LOct 5 · 18:35A. Molochko1.7311911113V. Verbyany2.00711451LOct 5 · 17:35N. Danyliuk1.5010111111113V. Verbyany2.5012135992WOct 5 · 16:05B. Kohut2.00531161V. Verbyany1.7311118113WOct 5 · 14:05A. Zeniuk4.0097100V. Verbyany1.221111123LOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051LOct 5 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.53111110113V. Verbyany2.38301281WOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171
S. Rak10
WOct 6 · 07:35N. Danyliuk1.20711981S. Rak4.3311811113LOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak2.63115941D. Zeniuk1.4461111113WOct 6 · 05:35B. Kohut1.3341180S. Rak3.251113113WOct 5 · 18:55S. Rak1.401111113I. Romaniak2.754970WOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113
Upcoming Matches
V. Verbyany
Nothing scheduled
S. Rak
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