TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Anton Molochko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511911119811
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:58 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Anton Molochko at 54.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 82–160 Anton Molochko Vasily Verbyany has won 82 of their 242 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Molochko beat Verbyany 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5854.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Molochko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
82-160 in 242
Molochko
Correct
gap of 78 in 242, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1931 vs Molochko 1946
Molochko
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 40% vs Molochko 20%
Verbyany
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 30% vs Molochko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -2 · Molochko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Molochko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 2.00 / Molochko 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Molochko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250667
Verbyany2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 88 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back22% 29 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Molochko1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 134 of 223
Up 2–0, closes it97% 62 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 99 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayMolochko6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany50%2 of 4
AwayMolochko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany4Molochko6n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Verbyany6Molochko4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S3Verbyany2Molochko8n = 10Molochko took 8 of 10
S4Verbyany3Molochko4n = 7Molochko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoV − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.436.5−5.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 827 vs 523 / 90742.1%57.7%348 / 827 vs 523 / 907Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoVerbyany 2.00/Molochko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 18:35V. Verbyany27711451A. Molochko4211911113
LSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany197840A. Molochko331111113
WSep 29 · 07:25V. Verbyany3913114113A. Molochko371181171
LSep 28 · 16:54V. Verbyany31119471A. Molochko4071111113
LSep 28 · 13:55V. Verbyany29118191A. Molochko4071111113
LSep 28 · 01:50V. Verbyany30711661A. Molochko4211911113
WSep 27 · 22:15V. Verbyany331111113A. Molochko218670
LSep 23 · 06:05V. Verbyany165560A. Molochko331111113
WSep 22 · 15:35V. Verbyany48511911123A. Molochko43119112102
WSep 21 · 23:30V. Verbyany4291111113A. Molochko34116981
V. Verbyany10
LOct 5 · 18:35A. Molochko1.7311911113V. Verbyany2.00711451LOct 5 · 17:35N. Danyliuk1.5010111111113V. Verbyany2.5012135992WOct 5 · 16:05B. Kohut2.00531161V. Verbyany1.7311118113WOct 5 · 14:05A. Zeniuk4.0097100V. Verbyany1.221111123LOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051LOct 5 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.53111110113V. Verbyany2.38301281WOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171LOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LOct 4 · 20:00V. Verbyany1.806811121B. Kohut1.9111118143LSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.207840A. Molochko1.611111113
A. Molochko10
LOct 6 · 06:05N. Danyliuk1.57111177113A. Molochko2.2566111172WOct 5 · 18:35A. Molochko1.7311911113V. Verbyany2.00711451LOct 5 · 16:35D. Zeniuk1.831111113A. Molochko1.833850LOct 5 · 15:35A. Molochko2.10131181262N. Danyliuk1.671141114113LOct 5 · 14:35B. Kohut2.631111113A. Molochko1.443750LOct 5 · 13:05A. Molochko1.22761141A. Zeniuk4.0011118113WSep 29 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.207840A. Molochko1.611111113WSep 29 · 08:55B. Kohut3.25911561A. Molochko1.3311811113LSep 29 · 07:25A. Molochko1.731181171V. Verbyany2.0013114113LSep 29 · 05:55A. Molochko1.836911101D. Zeniuk1.8311111123
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