TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Kohut vs Serhii Rak 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111113811––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:08 and never touched: 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeBohdan Kohut to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBohdan Kohut above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Bohdan Kohut at 74.4%
58 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Kohut 8–2 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0874.4%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 0.6pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kohut
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kohut 1939 vs Rak 1908
Kohut
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kohut 40% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kohut 50% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kohut -1 · Rak +4
Rak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Kohut) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKohut 1.333 / Rak 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Kohut)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13250881
Kohut1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 37 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it79% 30 of 38
Rak3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKohut8wins
AwayRak2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKohut leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKohut100%8 of 8
AwayRakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kohut8Rak2n = 10Kohut took 8 of 10
S2Kohut6Rak4n = 10Kohut took 6 of 10
S3Kohut8Rak2n = 10Kohut took 8 of 10
S4Kohut3Rak2n = 5Kohut took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKohutRakK − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.931.1+6.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKohutRakBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 695 vs 552 / 98744%55.9%306 / 695 vs 552 / 987Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KohutKohut 1.33/Rak 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.4%
Kohut · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WDec 29 · 07:25B. Kohut351111133S. Rak2669110
WDec 27 · 07:35B. Kohut4111811113S. Rak34811961
WDec 24 · 11:30B. Kohut331111113S. Rak183870
WDec 9 · 12:25B. Kohut331111113S. Rak236890
WDec 8 · 13:25B. Kohut541191110133S. Rak50911712112
WDec 2 · 08:25B. Kohut341211113S. Rak2410680
LNov 29 · 11:05B. Kohut50910111192S. Rak43111245113
LNov 28 · 18:35B. Kohut28811631S. Rak4111811113
WNov 28 · 04:00B. Kohut331111113S. Rak215970
B. Kohut10
LOct 5 · 18:05D. Zeniuk2.2012611113B. Kohut1.611011821WOct 5 · 17:05B. Kohut1.2511911113A. Zeniuk3.75611621LOct 5 · 16:05B. Kohut2.00531161V. Verbyany1.7311118113WOct 5 · 14:35B. Kohut2.631111113A. Molochko1.443750LOct 5 · 12:35B. Kohut3.2511971172N. Danyliuk1.33611119113LOct 5 · 01:38B. Kohut3.257790N. Danyliuk1.331111113WOct 5 · 00:00A. Zeniuk3.75611691B. Kohut1.2511711113WOct 4 · 22:30D. Zeniuk2.006890B. Kohut1.731111113LOct 4 · 21:00N. Danyliuk1.33114116113B. Kohut3.2571161182WOct 4 · 20:00V. Verbyany1.806811121B. Kohut1.9111118143
S. Rak10
LOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak2.63115941D. Zeniuk1.4461111113WOct 5 · 18:55S. Rak1.401111113I. Romaniak2.754970WOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113WOct 3 · 07:35Y. Kravets2.75591131S. Rak1.4011118113LOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113
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