TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Rak vs Dmytro Zeniuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511911411––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Zeniuk to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 68 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Dmytro Zeniuk at 67.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 8–15 Dmytro Zeniuk Serhii Rak has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2367.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zeniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Zeniuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1916 vs Zeniuk 2040
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 100% vs Zeniuk 80%
Rak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 80% vs Zeniuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +5 · Zeniuk +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Zeniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.625 / Zeniuk 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Zeniuk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250674
Rak2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Zeniuk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 101 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it90% 53 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it83% 79 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak4wins
AwayZeniuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak50%3 of 6
AwayZeniuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Zeniuk4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Rak4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S4Rak3Zeniuk5n = 8Zeniuk took 5 of 8
S5Rak2Zeniuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakZeniukR − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.1−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 989 vs 350 / 70755.9%49.5%553 / 989 vs 350 / 707Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeniukRak 2.63/Zeniuk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak29115941D. Zeniuk3961111113
WOct 2 · 18:35S. Rak48111115113D. Zeniuk449131391
WOct 1 · 21:30S. Rak50811911113D. Zeniuk4411711782
LAug 16 · 20:00S. Rak4071171142D. Zeniuk44113118113
WAug 11 · 07:35S. Rak501161110123D. Zeniuk47811612102
LAug 10 · 15:05S. Rak2710890D. Zeniuk341211113
WAug 10 · 02:30S. Rak351113113D. Zeniuk2461170
LAug 3 · 14:55S. Rak52151111872D. Zeniuk46172511113
LAug 1 · 05:35S. Rak26116541D. Zeniuk4071111113
LJul 28 · 07:35S. Rak28114851D. Zeniuk3961111113
S. Rak10
WOct 6 · 05:35B. Kohut1.3341180S. Rak3.251113113WOct 5 · 18:55S. Rak1.401111113I. Romaniak2.754970WOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113WOct 3 · 07:35Y. Kravets2.75591131S. Rak1.4011118113LOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113
D. Zeniuk10
WOct 6 · 04:35N. Danyliuk1.3671481132D. Zeniuk3.001112117113WOct 5 · 18:05D. Zeniuk2.2012611113B. Kohut1.611011821WOct 5 · 16:35D. Zeniuk1.831111113A. Molochko1.833850WOct 5 · 15:05D. Zeniuk1.4011711113A. Zeniuk2.75811661LOct 5 · 13:35D. Zeniuk2.204980N. Danyliuk1.611111113WOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051WOct 4 · 23:30N. Danyliuk1.2811761472D. Zeniuk3.507111112113LOct 4 · 22:30D. Zeniuk2.006890B. Kohut1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113LOct 4 · 20:30D. Zeniuk1.448770A. Zeniuk2.631111113
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