TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasily Verbyany vs Dmytro Zeniuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611711––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:32 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Zeniuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Dmytro Zeniuk at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 56–42 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 42 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:3254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
56-42 in 98
Verbyany
Wrong
gap of 14 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1933 vs Zeniuk 2040
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 40% vs Zeniuk 100%
Zeniuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Zeniuk 80%
Zeniuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +1 · Zeniuk +5
Zeniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zeniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Zeniuk 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zeniuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13250728
Verbyany1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Zeniuk1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 60 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayZeniuk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany80%4 of 5
AwayZeniuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Verbyany4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Verbyany5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Verbyany2Zeniuk5n = 7Zeniuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyZeniukV − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.335.8−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 824 vs 350 / 70742%49.5%346 / 824 vs 350 / 707Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeniukVerbyany 1.80/Zeniuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 12:05V. Verbyany368131051D. Zeniuk45111112113
LOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany27311941D. Zeniuk3811511113
LSep 29 · 04:55V. Verbyany27107100D. Zeniuk351211123
WSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany351111133D. Zeniuk2247110
LSep 28 · 00:15V. Verbyany314111061D. Zeniuk4111712113
LSep 23 · 04:35V. Verbyany196940D. Zeniuk331111113
WSep 22 · 14:35V. Verbyany4211911113D. Zeniuk28711821
LSep 21 · 22:30V. Verbyany44111011752D. Zeniuk47712611113
WSep 15 · 04:55V. Verbyany50119118113D. Zeniuk4191121182
WSep 14 · 15:55V. Verbyany4211911113D. Zeniuk28411491
V. Verbyany10
WOct 6 · 09:35V. Verbyany1.361111123S. Rak3.0038100WOct 6 · 07:05V. Verbyany1.7311115113B. Kohut2.00591171LOct 6 · 05:05V. Verbyany2.0011591182A. Molochko1.73911119113LOct 5 · 18:35A. Molochko1.7311911113V. Verbyany2.00711451LOct 5 · 17:35N. Danyliuk1.5010111111113V. Verbyany2.5012135992WOct 5 · 16:05B. Kohut2.00531161V. Verbyany1.7311118113WOct 5 · 14:05A. Zeniuk4.0097100V. Verbyany1.221111123LOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051LOct 5 · 00:30N. Danyliuk1.53111110113V. Verbyany2.38301281WOct 4 · 23:00V. Verbyany1.1711126113A. Zeniuk4.503101171
D. Zeniuk10
WOct 6 · 06:35S. Rak2.63115941D. Zeniuk1.4461111113WOct 6 · 04:35N. Danyliuk1.3671481132D. Zeniuk3.001112117113WOct 5 · 18:05D. Zeniuk2.2012611113B. Kohut1.611011821WOct 5 · 16:35D. Zeniuk1.831111113A. Molochko1.833850WOct 5 · 15:05D. Zeniuk1.4011711113A. Zeniuk2.75811661LOct 5 · 13:35D. Zeniuk2.204980N. Danyliuk1.611111113WOct 5 · 12:05D. Zeniuk2.00111112113V. Verbyany1.738131051WOct 4 · 23:30N. Danyliuk1.2811761472D. Zeniuk3.507111112113LOct 4 · 22:30D. Zeniuk2.006890B. Kohut1.731111113WOct 4 · 21:30V. Verbyany1.67311941D. Zeniuk2.1011511113
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