TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Sobel vs Bartosz Sulkowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911511811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Sobel to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
116911511811––
H2H Artur Sobel 16–10 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3961.6%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 0.9pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Sobel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Sobel
Wrong
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1615 vs Sulkowski 1493
Sobel
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 100% vs Sulkowski 80%
Sobel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 80% vs Sulkowski 50%
Sobel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +6 · Sulkowski +1
Sobel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Sobel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 1.60 / Sulkowski 2.15
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Sobel)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13244103
Sobel1.60
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 177 of 281
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it79% 123 of 155
Sulkowski2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 164 of 488
Down 0–1, comes back17% 50 of 288
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel6wins
AwaySulkowski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSobel leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel6Sulkowski4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S2Sobel6Sulkowski4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S3Sobel5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Sobel5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S5Sobel3Sulkowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelSulkowskiSobel − SulkowskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.541.2+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1191 vs 607 / 135954.8%44.7%653 / 1191 vs 607 / 1359Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobelSobel 1.60/Sulkowski 2.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Sobel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 13:55A. Sobel45101111582B. Sulkowski47128511113
WSep 22 · 08:35A. Sobel45121129113B. Sulkowski43106111152
WSep 8 · 12:15A. Sobel43111110113B. Sulkowski33961261
WJul 14 · 05:40A. Sobel531210119113B. Sulkowski45101261162
LJul 14 · 03:25A. Sobel4461191172B. Sulkowski43116114113
WJul 13 · 10:10A. Sobel48911611113B. Sulkowski4411811772
LJun 29 · 09:00A. Sobel381081191B. Sulkowski4012116113
WJun 29 · 06:05A. Sobel4414118113B. Sulkowski321221171
LJun 29 · 03:50A. Sobel45117111062B. Sulkowski49911612113
WJun 9 · 04:30A. Sobel4011711113B. Sulkowski36811891
A. Sobel10
WOct 5 · 13:05A. Sobel1.85911119113J. Zochniak1.8511641142WOct 5 · 11:50A. Sobel2.1011116113M. Kolek1.65791191WOct 5 · 10:10A. Sobel1.1911711113M. Zwolinski4.30511981WOct 5 · 09:00A. Sobel1.85171111113D. Solilo1.85194761WOct 5 · 07:40B. Wisniewski6.009890A. Sobel1.111111113WOct 5 · 06:55M. Zwolinski4.10671161A. Sobel1.1811116113LOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel1.9811881192M. Kolek1.65711118113WOct 5 · 04:30A. Sobel1.1681111113M. Lukaszewski4.35115621LOct 5 · 03:50B. Warpas3.231111113A. Sobel1.305680WSep 29 · 13:55A. Sobel1.80101111113D. Solilo1.91125141
B. Sulkowski10
LOct 5 · 13:30B. Sulkowski1.6012871192D. Solilo2.201011119113WOct 5 · 12:15J. Zochniak1.469880B. Sulkowski2.501111113LOct 5 · 11:00M. Kolek1.46117119113B. Sulkowski2.5071161192WOct 5 · 09:25M. Zwolinski3.0091030B. Sulkowski1.321112113WOct 5 · 00:10S. Brud1.61811119112B. Sulkowski2.20119711133WOct 4 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.1011611113M. Kukawka1.67311791LOct 4 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.10311641J. Nadolny1.6711811113WOct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.201711113L. Pietraszko1.6115770LOct 4 · 20:05J. Zochniak1.5781111113B. Sulkowski2.25114571LOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592
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